Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) – October 10, 2025

• FIDAUSDT rallied from 0.0743 to 0.0803 before a sharp 15-minute drop to 0.0752.
• Volume surged on the downside, with 280k and 1.3M trades in the final hours.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought and bearish divergence ahead of a possible reversal.
• Price tested key Fibonacci levels near 0.0773 and 0.0783, showing consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility, with price bouncing near the 2σ lower band.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0770 on October 9, 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.0803, a low of 0.0743, and closed at 0.0752 by October 10, 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 13,749,128.8, with notional turnover of approximately USD 1,063,331.3. The pair displayed pronounced bearish momentum in the final hours, marked by sharp declines and a volume spike.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish reversal pattern in the final 15-minute candles, with a long upper shadow and bearish engulfing structure following a brief overbought RSI. The breakdown below key psychological support at 0.0773 and subsequent test of 0.0762–0.0743 range highlighted vulnerability. A doji appeared at 0.0752, suggesting indecision and potential near-term support. Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% (0.0778) and 78.6% (0.0766) were tested multiple times but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

Short-term (15-minute) moving averages indicate bearish dominance, with the 20SMA and 50SMA in steep decline as of the final candles. On the daily chart, the 50DMA crossed below the 200DMA, confirming a bearish trend. The 100DMA is now acting as a dynamic resistance at around 0.0795, which may retest in a potential rebound.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish late in the session, with the histogram narrowing and crossing below zero, confirming a reversal. RSI, which peaked above 70 during the rally to 0.0803, dropped sharply below 30 in the final 30 minutes, signaling oversold conditions and potential bounce. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests caution, as strength may be fading.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band within a 2-hour window. The final breakdown to 0.0752 occurred after the price collapsed below the 2σ band, signaling high volatility. A consolidation period within the bands may precede a breakout or continuation, but bearish momentum appears to have taken control.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spikes occurred during the 15-minute window ending at 16:00 ET and the final hour before close, with turnover reaching USD 1,063,331.3. The divergence between the final sharp move and lower-than-expected volume suggests possible exhaustion. A lack of buying interest at the lower band indicates distribution may be in play, with bearish sentiment dominating.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price retraced 61.8% of the recent bullish move to 0.0803 and found support at 0.0763–0.0743. A test of the 78.6% level at 0.0762 failed, opening the door to further declines toward the 0.0743 level. On the 15-minute chart, key retracements at 38.2% (0.0789) and 61.8% (0.0783) acted as dynamic levels, but bearish pressure overwhelmed these areas.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, we consider a trend-following approach with a stop-loss and take-profit mechanism. A long entry could be triggered when price breaks above 0.0783 with confirmation from the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA and a bullish MACD crossover. A stop-loss would be placed below the recent swing low at 0.0762, while a take-profit is set at 0.0799, the next Fibonacci level. A short entry could be initiated on a breakdown below 0.0752 with RSI below 30 and diverging momentum. This strategy would be tested over the past 100 days, adjusting for volatility and slippage.