Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT)

Summary
• Price consolidates near 0.0600 with a 24-hour high of 0.0621 and low of 0.0571.
• Volume spikes late in the session, but price closed slightly lower than the day’s open.
• MACD and RSI suggest moderate bearish momentum, with oversold conditions emerging at session end.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0592 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0592 by 12:00 ET the following day. During the 24-hour window, the pair traded as high as 0.0621 and as low as 0.0571. Total volume reached 19,246,128.0, and total turnover was 1,164.4 USDT. Price action suggests consolidation after a sharp selloff in the early hours of 11-08.

Structure & Formations

FIDAUSDT displayed a bearish bias during the early trading hours on 11-08, forming a key support level near 0.0590. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 06:00 ET, suggesting further downside potential. However, a doji near 0.0600 around midday indicates indecision and potential near-term reversal. Price has struggled to retest the 0.0610 resistance level from the prior day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA converged near 0.0595–0.0598, with price frequently oscillating around them. On the daily chart, the 50DMA sits at ~0.0602 and the 200DMA at ~0.0610, suggesting the pair is currently below its long-term trend. This divergence indicates potential bearish pressure or a retracement in a longer-term bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with a weak bearish crossover observed in the early morning hours. RSI dropped below 30 late on 11-08, signaling oversold conditions and hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, the RSI failed to make a strong rebound above 50, indicating weak momentum and possible continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff between 00:00 and 04:00 ET, pushing price to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Price later traded near the upper band in the early evening of 11-07 before falling back into the middle band. The narrowing of the bands in the midday hours of 11-08 suggests a potential breakout or breakdown, but indecision has kept the pair contained for now.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply during the early hours of 11-08, coinciding with the largest selloff of the 24-hour period. Notional turnover also rose due to lower prices and high volume, though price failed to recover meaningfully after these spikes. The lack of follow-through buying suggests bearish conviction, though volume has since moderated, indicating a potential pause in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 11-07 swing high at 0.0616 and low at 0.0571, key support levels align at 0.0590 (38.2%) and 0.0582 (61.8%). Price has held just above the 38.2% level, suggesting it may act as a short-term floor. If it falls through, the 61.8% level will likely be the next critical test of bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup, a backtest using RSI(14) as an entry signal could offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of a mean-reversion strategy in FIDAUSDT. For instance, a buy signal could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 (oversold), with a sell signal at RSI above 50 to capture short-term bounces. Using the daily close for entries and exits would align with the time frame of the data. Including a 5% stop-loss would help manage downside risk, while a 10% take-profit could limit short-term profit-taking. Running this strategy from 2022-01-01 to today would allow us to assess its viability in volatile conditions like the current environment.