Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT)

• FIDAUSDT fell 0.95% over 24 hours, breaking below key support near 0.0810.
• Volume surged 3.8x during the 10:30–11:30 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory (~28) near close, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Price consolidated within 0.0765–0.0785 range during the last 6 hours, indicating short-term equilibrium.

24-Hour Snapshot

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0798 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0823 and a low of 0.0765 before closing at 0.0781 as of October 9, 12:00 ET. The pair traded a total 24-hour volume of 14,847,940.8 with a notional turnover of $1,184,148.92. The sharp decline in price and diverging volume trends suggest a bearish exhaustion pattern.

Structure & Formations

FIDAUSDT broke below a key support zone near 0.0810, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 18:30 ET on October 8. A series of bearish hammers and long-tailed candles between 08:30–14:00 ET indicated strong downside pressure. A key support at 0.0772–0.0780 is currently holding, but a break below this could target 0.0760–0.0765.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50DMA, with the 200DMA offering a medium-term floor at ~0.0760. A close above the 50DMA at 0.0810 would be necessary to regain bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish, with a negative histogram expanding as the price declined. RSI hit 28 by 12:00 ET on October 9, suggesting an oversold condition and possible short-term bounce. However, the lack of a bullish divergence suggests the oversold reading may be a false signal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has been trading near the lower band for most of the 24-hour period, with volatility contracting significantly during consolidation near 0.0776. A break above the middle band (current at ~0.0789) may offer a short-term relief rally, but confirmation of a new trend is pending.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 10:30–11:30 ET (October 9) as FIDAUSDT fell from 0.0787 to 0.0775, with notional turnover reaching $125K in that hour. This confirms the strength of the bearish move. A divergence emerged in the last 3 hours, with falling price but increasing turnover, hinting at possible accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0765–0.0823 swing, key levels include 61.8% at 0.0795 and 38.2% at 0.0782. Price is currently hovering near the 38.2% level, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. Daily retracement levels indicate critical resistance at 0.0810 and support at 0.0760.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering longs when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart and price closes above a key Fibonacci retracement level (38.2–61.8%). Stops could be placed below the previous swing low, with a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level. Given recent volatility and strong volume divergence, this strategy may perform well in consolidative phases, particularly if FIDAUSDT rebounds from oversold RSI readings.