Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at 0.0583, reached a high of 0.0599, and closed at 0.0575 with a 24-hour range of 0.0574–0.0599.
• Volume remained relatively stable, with a total of 8,769,094.5 units traded.
• Turnover peaked around 0.0594 and 0.0582, showing clear support and resistance clustering.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0583 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0575 the following day. The 24-hour high reached 0.0599, and the low fell to 0.0574. Total trading volume for the period was approximately 8,769,094.5, with notional turnover showing moderate clustering near key levels around 0.0594 and 0.0582.

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period revealed a bearish bias, particularly in the final hours, where the price closed below the earlier consolidation levels. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.0594, followed by a long lower shadow and a weak close below 0.0585. This suggests sellers have regained control after a brief bullish rally. A doji-like formation appeared near 0.0591, signaling indecision and a potential reversal point if the downward trend continues. Key support levels appear to form around 0.0582 and 0.0574, with the 0.0574 level showing a strong potential for retesting in the near term.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing a bearish bias, while the 50-period daily MA remains slightly above the current price, indicating medium-term bearish momentum. The RSI on the 15-minute chart briefly entered overbought territory at 0.0594 but has since fallen into oversold territory, suggesting the price may consolidate or rebound from its lower bounds. MACD lines have been trending downward with a negative histogram, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands show an expansion phase, with the price currently near the lower band at 0.0575, reinforcing the potential for a short-term bounce.

The volume and turnover metrics align with the price action, with the largest volume spikes observed at key inflection points, such as the 0.0594 and 0.0582 levels. This volume confirmation suggests these levels are structurally significant. A divergence between rising volume and declining prices is evident near 0.0585, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move. Fibonacci retracements from the recent swing high at 0.0599 to the low at 0.0574 show critical levels at 0.0585 (38.2%) and 0.0580 (61.8%), both of which the price has tested or may retest in the near future.

Backtest Hypothesis
The Doji-Star, 3-day-hold strategy has shown a total return of approximately 103.7% over the test period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11, with an annualized return of 21%. While the strategy has delivered positive results, it has also faced substantial risk, as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of 59.6%. On average, each trade gained 2%, with winners averaging 11% and losers averaging -7%. The Sharpe ratio of 0.49 suggests that while the strategy has outperformed, the risk-adjusted returns remain moderate. This strategy assumes that a doji-star candle signals indecision and a potential reversal, with positions held for three trading days without additional risk controls like stop-loss or take-profit. The results indicate that the method is profitable but volatile, which aligns with the observed technical patterns in this 24-hour report, particularly around the 0.0594 doji. Investors considering this strategy should carefully weigh the risk and potentially add risk management filters before deployment.