Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) on 2025-10-05

• Price surged from 0.0812 to 0.0858, with a closing pullback to 0.0843.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions in the late hours.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but faded after 05:00 ET.
• A key resistance at 0.0846–0.0848 appears tested multiple times.
• Volatility expanded during the bullish phase, then contracted after 09:00 ET.

Overview and 24-Hour Snapshot

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0812 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.0858 before closing at 0.0843 at 12:00 ET the next day. The price action reflected a strong bullish breakout in the early hours, with volume peaking at 1.25 million and turnover reaching $86,699.05 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a strong bullish trend between 00:15 and 05:30 ET, with several piercing and bullish engulfing patterns forming around key support levels. A doji formed at 06:00 ET as a potential exhaustion candle, followed by a consolidation phase between 06:45 and 08:45 ET. Price then tested resistance at 0.0846–0.0848 multiple times, forming a potential congestion zone. A bearish hammer at 09:45 ET marked the start of a retracement, which continued through midday.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above key support levels, supporting the bullish breakout. The price closed above the 50-period MA, which now acts as dynamic support at ~0.0835. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are converging near 0.0828, suggesting a potential consolidation ahead unless a clear break above 0.0850 occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and remained above the signal line through most of the bullish phase, with a divergence forming after 09:00 ET as momentum waned. RSI reached 70+ levels on several occasions between 03:00 and 05:30 ET, signaling overbought conditions that preceded a pullback. The current RSI at ~55 suggests a balanced, but cautious, market stance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with price trading near the upper band for nearly two hours. After 06:00 ET, volatility contracted, and the price moved closer to the midline of the bands. A retest of the upper band at 0.0846 occurred at 05:30 ET but failed to break through, reinforcing the 0.0846–0.0848 range as key resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout at 03:00–05:30 ET, with a large block of 1.25 million traded at 03:00 ET. Turnover remained in line with volume, suggesting strong conviction behind the move. However, after 05:30 ET, volume collapsed despite continued price testing of resistance, indicating potential exhaustion. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0812–0.0858 swing shows a 61.8% retracement at 0.0841, which the price tested at 10:00 and 11:00 ET before retreating. The 78.6% level at 0.0847 was briefly reached but rejected. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement from a recent low is near 0.0826, where a bounce occurred at 22:45 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using a bullish engulfing pattern combined with a break above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. Such a setup could trigger a long entry with a stop loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A take-profit target may align with the 78.6% Fibonacci or the next key resistance. This strategy aligns with observed price behavior between 03:00 and 05:30 ET, where both the pattern and MA crossover occurred, leading to a 3.5% gain within two hours.