Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) — 2025-09-25

• FIDAUSDT traded in a tight range during the early ET session before declining sharply into the Asian and European hours.
• A bearish breakdown below key support levels was confirmed, with volume surging in the 12:00–16:00 ET window.
• Momentum indicators show strong bearish divergence, with RSI entering oversold territory near 25.
• Volatility expanded in the late ET hours as price traded within widening Bollinger Bands.
• Fibonacci retracement levels now frame potential short-term bounce targets near 0.077–0.078, but further downside risks remain.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at $0.0815 at 12:00 ET−1 and traded as high as $0.0816 before closing at $0.0768 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low hit $0.0752. Total volume amounted to 16,008,690 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,237,759 (based on weighted average price). Price action suggests a bearish shift in sentiment, especially in the late ET and early LT hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish breakdown below 0.0804 support, with a subsequent rally failing to retake the level, forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a potential bearish flag. A 4-hour session saw a 0.0815 high turning into a key psychological level for short-term bounces. A 0.0768 close near the 2025-09-24 low suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. A 0.0752 intraday low marks the most immediate support, with a 0.077–0.078 zone providing critical Fib and prior support levels for potential countertrend action.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both turned downward after the breakdown below key support. The MACD crossed into bearish territory, with a negative histogram signaling accelerating downward momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory near 25 in the final ET hours, but without a corresponding price rebound, suggesting a lack of short-term buyers. The 50EMA on the daily chart remains above the 100EMA and 200EMA, signaling intermediate-term bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price fell into the Asian session, indicating heightened volatility. The close near the lower band on the 15-minute chart at 12:00 ET suggests exhaustion in the short-term bear move. However, the absence of a bounce from the band and continued volume surges imply further downside is possible, with the next contraction potentially forming a key pivot for a reversal.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked in the 12:00–16:00 ET session, aligning with the breakdown below 0.0804. Notional turnover was significantly higher during the 2025-09-24 22:00–23:00 ET and 02:00–04:00 LT hours, indicating large sellers. However, the absence of a corresponding volume increase during the 10:00–11:00 LT rally suggests weak demand. A divergence between price and volume during the 08:00–09:00 LT rally hints at fading momentum in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracements from the 0.0816–0.0752 swing indicate 0.077 and 0.078 as potential bounce levels for short-term traders. The 0.0766 level aligns with the 38.2% Fib, and 0.0772 aligns with the 50% Fib. A break below 0.0752 would extend the move toward 0.073–0.074. These levels can serve as dynamic support and resistance for near-term directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on shorting FIDAUSDT after a confirmed breakdown below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 0.077) with bearish momentum in the MACD and RSI. Entry could be triggered on a close below 0.0768, with a stop above 0.0775. A target of 0.075–0.074 would align with a continuation of the bear trend. This approach would benefit from the recent alignment of technical indicators and the volume surge, suggesting conviction in the bearish move. Testing this strategy over multiple 15-minute setups would help quantify success rates and risk-reward profiles.