Market Overview: BNTUSDT – Bearish Momentum and Oversold RSI Signal Caution

• Price declined from $0.7144 to $0.6881 amid a bearish volume surge.
• RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility with price at the lower band for much of the session.
• Volume increased sharply after 19:00 ET, but price failed to hold key levels.
• A bullish breakout above $0.7044 could test previous resistance at $0.7085.

15-Minute Open, High, Low, Close and Volume Summary

The 24-hour candle for BNTUSDT opened at $0.7031 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.6881 on 2025-10-04 at 16:00 ET, with a high of $0.7144 and a low of $0.6869. The total volume traded was 186,232.2 BNT, and the notional turnover amounted to $122,311.78. The price action appears to have been driven by bearish sentiment late in the session, especially after 19:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a bearish reversal from the high of $0.7144. A significant bearish candle formed at 17:15 ET with a body of $0.0116 and wick reaching down to $0.6954. Later in the session, a potential hammer pattern appeared at $0.6907 (10:45 ET), but it failed to confirm with follow-through buying. The key support level at $0.6954 was tested multiple times but broke decisively on 10:45 ET candle. Resistance remains at $0.7044, which was a minor pivot in the latter half of the session.

Engulfing patterns

An engulfing bearish pattern was observed at 17:15 ET, with a strong bearish close of $0.7005 from an open at $0.7072. This candle suggests a shift in short-term sentiment. A smaller engulfing bullish pattern was also observed at 21:15 ET (0.7093–0.7094) but lacked the volume to confirm a reversal.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Key support levels appear to be at $0.6954 and $0.6907, with $0.6869 as the next potential target. Resistance is now at $0.6954 (former support), $0.6984, and $0.7044. A breakdown below $0.6907 would likely open the path toward $0.6850, while a close above $0.7044 could rekindle short-term bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (MA20) and 50-period MA (MA50) indicate a bearish crossover, with the MA50 below the MA20, reinforcing a weak trend. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200-period MAs are in a downward alignment, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, a bearish signal in a broader context.

MA Crossovers and Trend Confirmation

The 20/50 crossover on the 15-minute chart remained negative for the entire period, with MA50 staying well below MA20. This indicates that the price action is below the average trend line and could continue to do so if bearish momentum is not reversed. The MA100/MA200 on the daily chart also show a bearish alignment, supporting the notion of a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after the 19:00 ET candle and has remained below the signal line, suggesting a weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 at 09:00 ET and remained in oversold territory for most of the session, hinting at a potential short-term rebound. However, RSI failed to close above 35 before the session ended, limiting the chances of a strong countertrend rally.

Momentum Divergence

Despite a brief bearish divergence observed at 19:00 ET, where RSI failed to make a new low while price did, the subsequent bearish wave confirmed the divergence. No strong bullish divergences were seen during the session, but the oversold RSI suggests the pair may find some buying interest near key supports.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 17:15 ET candle, reflecting high volatility. For most of the session, the price remained at or near the lower band, especially between 09:00 and 11:00 ET. This suggests a strong bearish bias and potential exhaustion of bullish buyers.

Volatility Contractions and Expansions

A volatility expansion was noted during the 17:15 ET candle as the band width increased from 1.5% to 3.4%. This aligns with a key breakdown moment. A contraction was observed before 19:00 ET, but it did not lead to a reversal, indicating that bearish momentum remained intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at 17:15 ET, with over 33,620 BNT traded, but the price failed to hold above $0.7005 after that candle. Turnover also increased during this period, reaching $23,684.78 in a single candle. Later in the session, volume remained moderate, suggesting that the bearish move was more of a one-sided trade than a broad consensus.

Price / Volume Divergence

A bearish volume divergence was observed during the 17:15 ET candle where volume surged, but price failed to close above $0.7050. This confirmed a key bearish reversal. No notable bullish divergences were identified over the 24-hour period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the key bearish move from $0.7144 to $0.6907 indicate that the 38.2% level at $0.7044 and 61.8% at $0.6954 were key psychological levels. Price tested these levels multiple times, especially $0.6954, before breaking down. A rebound above $0.7044 may see traders test for a potential 23.6% level at $0.7117, though bearish momentum remains strong.

Fibonacci Confluence

Confluence between Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands was observed at $0.6954, where the price met both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the lower Bollinger Band. This confluence provided a stronger bearish signal than either tool alone. The breakdown below $0.6954 confirmed this bearish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry at a pullback above the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.7044), with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% level ($0.6954) and a take-profit target at the 23.6% retracement of the preceding bearish move at $0.7117. This approach would rely on RSI crossing above 30 in oversold territory, with volume confirmation. The 20/50 MA crossover should be positive at the entry time to confirm a bullish bias. A similar strategy could be tested on the 15-minute chart using the 50-period MA as a dynamic support level.