Market Overview for BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) – October 11, 2025

• BNB/Yen traded lower in a volatile 24-hour window, closing near key support after a sharp sell-off.
• Price broke below a prior low, forming bearish patterns and confirming oversold RSI conditions.
• Volatility expanded with widening Bollinger Bands, while volume spiked during the breakdown.
• Fibonacci levels at 169,000 and 171,000 may act as short-term support and resistance, respectively.
• Momentum remains bearish, but divergence in RSI and volume suggests caution for further selloffs.

BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) opened at 184,869 yen on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 172,583 yen the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a high of 189,266 yen and a low of 138,594 yen, with total volume amounting to 7,933.89 units and a notional turnover of approximately ¥1.38 billion.

The structure of the session revealed multiple bearish developments. A sharp breakdown below prior support at ~185,000 yen occurred around 21:15 ET, followed by an accelerated decline toward ~165,000 yen. A notable doji formed near 166,200 yen, hinting at temporary indecision among sellers. The price then found support at ~169,000 yen, forming a bullish reversal pattern. Resistance levels emerged at ~171,000 yen and ~173,500 yen, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trending downward, reinforcing bearish bias.

The RSI hit oversold territory at 30 during the decline, indicating possible exhaustion in the downward move, though this divergence from weak price action suggests a cautious outlook. The MACD line remained negative, with a bearish crossover between the signal and histogram lines. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakdown phase, with price closing near the lower band at 172,583 yen. This suggests elevated volatility but also potential for a rebound off the band.

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, with the largest single 15-minute candle (192.28 units) occurring at 21:15 ET. Turnover spiked alongside the price drop, confirming the bearish momentum. However, volume during the rebound phase was relatively muted, suggesting limited buying interest. Divergence between price and turnover may indicate that the move lower was driven by large-scale selling, possibly including institutional activity.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the 138,594 to 173,227 swing showed 38.2% at ~160,500 yen and 61.8% at ~170,000 yen. The price closed near the 61.8% level, which may now act as immediate support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 172,000 yen, with the 100-period and 200-period MAs providing further context for potential support or resistance in the near term.

The short-term outlook for BNB/Yen remains bearish, with momentum indicators still in negative territory and key support levels near 169,000–170,000 yen likely to be tested. A rebound from these levels could test resistance at 171,000 yen, where the 50-period MA aligns. However, a failure to hold above ~169,000 yen could extend the decline toward the next Fibonacci target at ~160,500 yen. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high, and a breakout of either key support or resistance could trigger further directional momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the 15-minute MACD line crosses below the signal line during a price drop confirmed by a doji or engulfing bearish pattern, while volume surges. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance (e.g., 50-period MA), and a take-profit target could align with the next Fibonacci level or key support. During the recent session, such a strategy would have triggered an entry around the 166,200 yen doji with a stop above 168,000 yen, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5 based on the size of the expected move. This approach would benefit from a strong bearish bias in both momentum and structure, as observed during the breakdown in the evening.