Market Overview for BNB/Yen (BNBJPY)

• BNB/Yen traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows amid bearish momentum.
• Price tested key support levels at 146,500–147,000 JPY before consolidating during overnight hours.
• Volatility increased in the early morning, with a sharp drop from 148,300 to 146,179 JPY in under 2 hours.
• RSI and MACD showed oversold conditions, suggesting a potential near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the early morning, indicating heightened short-term uncertainty.

The BNB/Yen pair opened at 149,046 JPY on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 149,466 JPY before falling to a low of 145,628 JPY and closing at 147,185 JPY on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 489.6095 units, with a notional turnover of ~70,637,721 JPY. The price action reflected a bearish bias with notable intraday pullbacks and consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed bearish engulfing patterns in the late evening hours and a large bearish reversal from a prior bullish trend. A key support level appeared around 146,500–147,000 JPY, where the price found a floor after an accelerated decline. A morning session doji near 146,611 JPY suggests indecision and potential for a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were well below the closing price for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA in the prior week, suggesting a continuation of a medium-term downtrend. Price remains below key moving averages, indicating a lack of immediate bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the early morning, with a bearish crossover below the signal line. RSI dropped below 30 for several hours, signaling oversold conditions. However, the RSI has yet to show a convincing recovery, hinting that the bearish momentum may not have fully exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the early morning session, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly as price dropped below the lower band. The contraction that followed in the afternoon suggests a possible return to range-bound trading. Price has since hovered near the upper band in the morning, indicating a potential reversal if support holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early morning during the sharp decline from 148,000 to 146,179 JPY, indicating strong bearish conviction. Turnover also spiked during this period, supporting the price drop. However, in the last few hours, volume has decreased, suggesting a potential end to the aggressive selling phase. Divergence between price and volume in the final 3 hours may indicate a near-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 149,466 to 145,628, the price found a brief pause at the 61.8% level (147,062 JPY). The 38.2% retracement level (146,780 JPY) was also tested during consolidation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the broader downtrend remains at 143,000 JPY, a critical support zone for near-term action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent oversold RSI and bearish MACD crossover, a backtest could explore a short-term reversal strategy that enters long when RSI crosses above 30 and the MACD line turns positive. This would align with the price action seen during the morning bounce and provide a data-driven method to test the strength of the potential recovery. Since the RSI indicator data for the "BNBJPY" ticker is currently unavailable, an alternative ticker such as "BNB/JPY" or "BNBJPY:CUR" may need to be used to ensure accurate historical RSI data retrieval. Using a consistent and recognized ticker format will help improve the reliability and accuracy of the backtest results.