Market Overview for BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) – 2025-09-26

• Price fell sharply from 149,500 to 140,000 over 24 hours, driven by bearish momentum and high volume during early sessions.
• RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, while MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, followed by a period of consolidation near 141,000–142,000.
• A key support level at 140,000 was tested twice, with weak rejection suggesting potential for further downside.
• Volume spiked early, then decreased, signaling fading bearish pressure and possible short-term stabilization.

BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) opened at 149,072 at 12:00 ET-1 and fell to a 24-hour low of 140,044 before closing at 140,689 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to 1,407.2448 units, with a notional turnover of ¥200.75 million. The price action reflected bearish continuation with oversold conditions, as seen in RSI and MACD indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish trend over the past 24 hours, with multiple large bearish bodies and a key breakdown below 142,000. A 15-minute candle at 03:15 ET printed a large bearish real body from 142,048 to 141,921, signaling strong bearish intent. A potential support cluster formed near 140,000–140,500, where the price found limited rejection. A doji at 06:15 ET (141,018) and another at 11:30 ET (140,507) indicate hesitation and possible consolidation in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period MA currently sits around 142,500, while the 20-period MA is at 143,000. The 100-period and 200-period daily MAs (not included in this 15-min dataset) likely continue to provide overhead resistance, with the 200-period daily MA potentially near 146,000–147,000 based on prior trends.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 in the early morning session, indicating oversold conditions, and remained in that range through the day. The MACD turned negative after 16:00 ET and remained bearish, with a bearish crossover in the morning and a bearish histogram expansion. This confirms weakening bullish momentum and reinforces the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 16:00 ET and 17:30 ET, with the upper band peaking near 149,500 and the lower band dipping below 145,000. Price remained near the lower band for much of the session, especially in the early hours, and only returned to the middle band in the afternoon. This suggests a low-volatility phase with potential for a rebound or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highest during the early part of the session (16:00–17:30 ET), with large bearish candles printing high notional turnover. A 15-minute candle at 17:30 ET had 198.6625 units traded at 145,500, reflecting a significant bearish move. Volume decreased significantly after 05:00 ET, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. Price and volume appear to be aligned in the early session but show signs of divergence in the late afternoon.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent swing high of 149,500 and the swing low of 140,000 form a key Fibonacci structure. Price tested the 38.2% retracement at 144,000 and the 61.8% retracement at 142,000 without strong rejection. On the daily chart, a larger swing from 149,500 to 140,000 suggests the 78.6% level is near 140,500, a level that may be pivotal in the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure and confirmed bearish bias, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short positions entered near the 143,000–144,000 area, with stops above the 145,000–145,500 range. Targets could be set at 140,000 and then 138,500 using Fibonacci levels and volume profiles. This strategy would align with the bearish momentum confirmed by RSI, MACD, and large bearish candles in early sessions. A trailing stop could be initiated once the price breaks below 141,000 to protect gains as the market tests key support levels.