Market Overview for BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) – 2025-10-12

• BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) traded lower overnight, forming bearish engulfing patterns and breaking below key support levels.
• Volatility surged after 19:00 ET, with price dropping 3.4% into consolidation near 1.68M.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30, while volume spiked during the selloff before fading.
• A late-day rally to 1.9M failed to hold, highlighting bearish sentiment and potential for further pullback.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off, and price remains near the 20-period MA with mixed near-term signals.

Opening Narrative

The BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) pair opened at 1,752,440.0 at 12:00 ET–1 and peaked at 1,977,728.0 before closing at 1,977,728.0 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a high of 1,977,728.0 and a low of 1,681,174.0. Total volume traded was 16.537, while total turnover reached 29,326,877,894.0 ARS, showing strong participation despite a bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed several bearish and bullish patterns over the past 24 hours. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET, signaling a sharp reversal from 1.78M to 1.75M. A second bearish engulfing pattern occurred near 21:00 ET, followed by a continuation of the downward trend. Key support levels were identified at 1.71M and 1.68M, with the latter being tested and broken. On the upside, 1.84M and 1.91M acted as resistance levels, with the 1.91M level failing to hold after the late rally.

A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 06:00 ET, indicating a short-term reversal from 1.72M to 1.74M, but the bearish trend continued afterward. A doji candle formed at 03:00 ET near 1.69M, indicating indecision, but the trend resumed lower. A hammer pattern was seen near 05:00 ET but failed to trigger a sustained bounce.

Moving Averages

Using the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently crossing in a bearish divergence, with price below both and trending lower. The 20-period MA is at ~1.89M, while the 50-period MA is at ~1.91M, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.

On a daily time frame, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all in a downtrend, with price closing below all three, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA sits at ~1.95M, and the 200-period MA at ~1.98M, suggesting further support may be found below 1.95M or a potential retest of 1.9M.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the histogram narrowing after the 19:00 ET sell-off, indicating decreasing momentum. The RSI has dropped below 30, reaching ~28 at 06:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. However, price has not bounced effectively from this level, suggesting a weak recovery attempt.

The RSI's inability to hold above 40 after multiple attempts indicates weakening bullish conviction, while the MACD continues to trend downward. This combination suggests further consolidation or a test of 1.68M before any meaningful reversal could occur.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 19:00 ET–21:00 ET period, as price fell sharply from ~1.8M to ~1.68M. Price closed near the lower band at 1.68M, indicating bearish exhaustion or a potential bounce. The bands have since contracted, suggesting reduced volatility and a possible period of consolidation ahead.

Price has remained below the 20-period moving average and within the lower half of the bands, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A strong close above the 1.84M level could trigger a retest of the upper Bollinger Band, but this appears unlikely without a clear breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sell-off period (19:00–21:00 ET), with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 20:45 ET (volume = 0.851). Turnover also surged during this time, with the highest 15-minute turnover reaching 1.46B ARS. However, volume has since declined, and the current volume is below 0.2, indicating waning interest.

Despite the high turnover during the selloff, price failed to make a new low, suggesting some level of buying interest at 1.68M. The divergence between high volume and limited price movement implies exhaustion in the bearish side, which may precede a near-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci retracements from the high of 1.977M to the low of 1.681M show key levels at ~1.84M (38.2%), ~1.89M (50%), and ~1.93M (61.8%). Price has tested the 38.2% level multiple times but failed to break it. The 50% level at ~1.89M has not been reached yet and could act as a potential support/resistance zone if the price rebounds.

On the daily chart, retracements from the recent high of 1.977M to the low of 1.681M suggest potential support at 1.84M (38.2%) and 1.89M (50%), aligning with the 15-minute levels. These levels may be crucial in determining the next direction of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a long position when the price breaks above a 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI above 40. A stop-loss is placed at the most recent 15-minute low, and a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Based on today’s data, this strategy would not have triggered a trade, as the conditions (moving average crossover and RSI above 40) were not met. However, the bearish engulfing patterns and RSI below 30 would have triggered a short signal if the strategy were adapted for bearish entries.