Market Overview for Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) – September 26, 2025

• Price action on BLURUSDT shows a bearish bias, with a 4.6% decline from the 12:00 ET-1 open to 12:00 ET close.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours of the session, with a low of $0.0705 and a high of $0.07399.
• Strong bearish momentum was confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence, suggesting oversold conditions later in the session.
• Volume surged to 1.29M at 17:30 ET, indicating high participation during the downward move.
• A key support area appears to form near $0.0708–$0.0712, with potential for a bounce or consolidation.

Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) opened at $0.07384 on September 25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.07399, and fell to a low of $0.0705 during the 24-hour period. The pair closed at $0.07118 as of 12:00 ET on September 26. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was approximately 12.79 million BLUR, with a notional turnover of $910.4 thousand, indicating moderate liquidity and activity.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish bias over the last 24 hours, with a strong decline from $0.0738 to $0.0705. The candlestick pattern formed during the decline includes a series of bearish engulfing patterns, especially between 17:30 ET and 18:15 ET, where volume spiked and price dropped nearly 5%. A key support zone appears to be forming between $0.0708 and $0.0712, where the price has tested twice and found some buying interest. A potential bearish continuation may occur if this level fails to hold.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a short-term bearish trend. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below each other during the early hours, confirming a downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are still aligned in a bullish configuration, suggesting that the longer-term trend has not been fully invalidated yet. However, the 100-day MA has begun to flatten, which may indicate a weakening in bullish conviction.

RSI and MACD confirmed the bearish momentum during the early and mid-hours of the session. RSI dropped below 30 during the 18:15–19:00 ET period, suggesting oversold conditions and potentially setting the stage for a short-term bounce. However, price failed to form a strong bullish reversal pattern during this time, and MACD remained bearish, with the line below the signal line and the histogram expanding downward. This indicates that the bearish pressure remains intact, and a breakout below $0.0705 could signal further weakness.

The Bollinger Bands widened during the downward move, with price hitting the lower band at $0.0705 on September 26. This suggests increased volatility and bearish pressure. The price closed just above the lower band at $0.07118, indicating that volatility may be subsiding slightly. A retest of the lower band in the coming hours could confirm or invalidate the short-term support at $0.0708–$0.0712.

Volume and turnover were concentrated during the early hours of the session, with the largest volume spike occurring at 17:30 ET (1.29 million BLUR). This was followed by a sharp drop in price to $0.0705. However, volume began to wane after this point, and the price failed to make a convincing lower low, suggesting some level of exhaustion in the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume during the last few hours indicates that sellers may be running out of steam.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the major 15-minute swing (from $0.07399 to $0.0705) suggest that key psychological levels to watch include the 38.2% retracement at $0.0724 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.0717. The price found some resistance near $0.0717–$0.0718, and a breakdown of this level could signal a potential test of the lower Fibonacci level at $0.0705.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a bearish breakout model based on the confluence of bearish engulfing patterns, RSI oversold readings, and volume divergence. A trade entry would be triggered on a close below the lower Bollinger Band and a subsequent break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0717. A stop-loss could be placed above the 50-period MA, while a take-profit could be set at either the $0.0705 low or the next Fibonacci level at $0.0699. This strategy would be most effective in a trending bearish environment with moderate to high volume and clear support levels in place.