Market Overview: Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) – October 5, 2025

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• BLURUSDT broke above 0.0756 after a 4.5% rally in late hours, driven by increased buying pressure and a bullish breakout from key resistance.
• Volume spiked 32% during the 0.0756–0.0761 range, confirming the strength of the rally and divergence in turnover.
• RSI reached overbought territory at 68, while MACD crossed above zero, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
• Price found support at 0.0747 multiple times, forming a 6-hour base before the breakout.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price moving to the +1.5 sigma level during the late surge.

The 24-hour session for Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) saw the pair open at 0.07443 on 12:00 ET–1 and trade between 0.07443 and 0.07746, closing at 0.07596 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 4,417,850 BLUR, with notional turnover at $331,582.55. The pair saw a 7.8% gain from open to close, reflecting a strong rally from late hours. A consolidation phase in the early morning gave way to a sharp breakout, supported by increasing volume and a strong push above key resistance.

Structure & Formations

BLURUSDT displayed a bullish breakout pattern after a 4-hour consolidation between 0.0747 and 0.0756. A key engulfing candle appeared at 02:45 ET–1 (2025-10-04 201500) with open at 0.07524 and close at 0.07533, signaling short-term bullish momentum. A trend continuation pattern emerged as price moved decisively above the 0.0756 resistance level, with a strong close at 0.07614 during the early hours of the 5th. Notable support levels include 0.0747 and 0.0745, where price found bids multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BLURUSDT closed above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period MA at 0.0752 was decisively crossed during the late-night rally, with the 20-period MA at 0.0754 acting as a near-term support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0749, with the 100-period at 0.0744 and 200-period at 0.0741, indicating the pair has moved decisively into a bull phase compared to its long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached 68 at 04:15 ET–1, entering overbought territory, with a slow bearish divergence forming after the 0.0765 peak. The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 0.0001 around 02:30 ET–1 (2025-10-05 003000), signaling bullish momentum. However, as the RSI moved into overbought territory, the MACD histogram began to contract, indicating potential exhaustion in the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout phase, with price reaching the +1.5 sigma level at 0.0760. The 20-period standard deviation expanded from 0.0003 to 0.0005, reflecting increased volatility. Price has remained above the 20-period SMA since the 02:30 ET–1 crossover, suggesting continued bullish control. A retracement to the mid-band at 0.0755 could offer a short-term target for consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged 32% in the 0.0756–0.0761 range, especially during the 0.07655–0.07674 move, where volume exceeded 322,000 BLUR. Notional turnover spiked during the breakout, with $138,273.8 traded at 04:15 ET–1 (2025-10-05 003000). The price-turnover divergence began to appear after the 0.0765 peak, with turnover declining slightly despite price moving higher, indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart identified key retracement levels from the 0.07443 to 0.07603 move. The 0.07535 (38.2%) and 0.07578 (50%) levels acted as key psychological support and resistance. On the daily chart, the 0.0747 (61.8%) level held firm during multiple retracements, with a 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.0749 becoming a potential target for further consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a close above the 20-period moving average combined with a RSI divergence below 60 for confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed just below 0.0747, with a take-profit at 0.0765—the first major resistance. The MACD histogram could be used to identify momentum exhaustion, with a short bias suggested if it turns negative after the 0.0765 peak. This strategy would aim to capture short-term breakouts while managing risk through tight stop levels.