Market Overview: Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Price dropped from 0.07859 to 0.07453 over 24 hours, with a bearish bias evident.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and price moved through 61.8% Fibonacci support.
• RSI remains in oversold territory for much of the period, signaling potential bounce or continuation risk.
• On-balance volume decreased sharply after 20:00 ET, with price failing to reclaim prior intraday highs.
• A breakdown below 0.07434 may expose key support at 0.07362, with further tests of 0.07271 likely.

The 24-hour chart for Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) opened at 0.07859 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.07453 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.08004 and a low of 0.07434, with a total volume of 6,601,288.3 and a notional turnover of $495,832.89. The pair has shown a consistent bearish drift, with a breakdown through key support levels and weak volume in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish structure with a key breakdown below the 0.07453 level, confirming a loss of short-term equilibrium. A morning bullish engulfing pattern formed around 00:30 ET temporarily stalled the decline, but bearish momentum resumed. A doji at 04:00 ET suggested indecision, followed by a bearish continuation. Key support levels are now at 0.07434, 0.07362, and 0.07271, while resistance lies at 0.07521 and 0.07592.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period MA at 0.0761 and the 50-period MA at 0.0766, both crossed by price to the downside, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at 0.0762, the 100-period MA at 0.0778, and the 200-period MA at 0.0795, all showing that price is well below key multi-timeframe support. A move back above the 20-period MA would be a necessary short-term condition for a rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence after 03:00 ET, with negative momentum growing stronger. The 15-minute RSI hovered near 30 for most of the period, suggesting oversold conditions, though this has not resulted in a strong bounce. A failure to close above 0.07521 could drive RSI further down, potentially into a 20–25 zone. If the RSI crosses below 20 and fails to rise above 30 for three consecutive closes, bearish continuation would be probable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened from a narrow range in the early hours to a wide range post 03:00 ET. Price closed near the lower band at 0.07453, confirming oversold pressure. A bounce off the lower band is likely, but without a strong close above the midline of the bands (0.07566), a continuation below the lower band remains a risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the first two hours, with a peak of 480,018.5 at 00:15 ET, but declined sharply after 02:00 ET, particularly after 04:00 ET. Notional turnover dropped from $37,000 to below $10,000 in the final 4 hours, indicating a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Price and volume action are in convergence on the downside, but weak volume in the last 4 hours suggests exhaustion may be setting in.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.07802–0.07434 bearish move, key levels at 0.07586 (23.6%), 0.07517 (38.2%), and 0.07453 (50%) were tested. A close below 0.07434 (61.8%) would signal a deeper bearish phase. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 0.07946 high to 0.07271 low show 0.07434 as a key 78.6% retracement level, with further bearish potential below.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on a bearish breakout trigger when price closes below the 15-minute 20-period MA and the RSI dips below 30 for three consecutive closes. Stop-loss is placed at the highest high of the last 5 candles, and the target is set at 61.8% Fibonacci of the bearish leg. Given the current positioning, a close below 0.07434 and confirmation of RSI below 30 would activate the strategy. A bearish bias is justified, but volatility and volume suggest caution, especially if the next 24-hour candle fails to print a lower low.

The next 24 hours could bring a test of the 0.07434 level and a potential bounce toward 0.07517 if the RSI stabilizes. However, a breakdown below 0.07362 may accelerate the bearish trend. Investors should remain cautious as volume has weakened, and without confirmation of a rebound, bearish continuation remains a high-probability outcome.