Market Overview for Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC)

Summary
• Price dropped sharply from $0.004633 to $0.003808 on heavy volume.
• Key support at $0.003914 was breached.
• Volatility expanded with large swings after 19:00 ET.

Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at $0.004496 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.004683, and closed at $0.003820 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The 24-hour volume totaled 3,026.89 units, while notional turnover reached $13.22 (based on TAOBTC prices). Price action showed a strong bearish bias after 19:00 ET with a significant break of key support and a large-volume decline.

Structure & Formations

A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET as price gapped down from $0.004509 to $0.004456 and closed at $0.004456. This was followed by a series of smaller bearish patterns that continued the downward bias. The support at $0.003914 held briefly before breaking in early morning trading on 11/04. The price action shows a strong bearish trend, with a key support zone now at $0.003808–$0.003820.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below price for most of the session, but closed below the price at the end of the 24-hour window. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were also below price, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session and remained negative for the majority of the 24-hour period. The histogram showed a consistent bearish divergence. The RSI dropped below 30 in the early morning hours of 11/04, signaling an oversold condition, though this did not halt the decline.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the price breakdown after 19:00 ET, with price moving below the lower Bollinger Band for several hours. The bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty and selling pressure. By the morning of 11/04, price remained near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure and potential for further downward movement.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 19:00 ET with 26.28 units traded, as price dropped to $0.004456. This was followed by a smaller but consistent volume increase in the late evening and early morning. The total volume of 3,026.89 units and turnover of $13.22 suggest strong distribution activity during the selloff. Price and volume aligned, with no notable divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous bullish swing was at $0.004381, which acted as a resistance during the early part of the 24-hour session. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the recent bullish leg is at $0.003969, which failed as support. The next key Fibonacci level is at $0.003814, which may offer some near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent oversold RSI conditions seen in the early morning of 11/04, a backtest strategy based on RSI 14-period oversold levels (below 30) and a 72-hour hold period could have captured a potential rebound. However, in this case, the oversold signal was followed by further price deterioration, suggesting that RSI may have been misleading in a fast-moving, bear-driven environment. A successful backtest would need to incorporate filters such as trend alignment or volume confirmation to avoid false signals in volatile conditions.