Market Overview for Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC): 2025-09-23

• Price tested key resistance at 0.002826, with a pullback to 0.002791 observed.
• RSI showed signs of overbought conditions earlier, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased during overnight hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Volume surged near key breakout levels, confirming momentum but showing signs of exhaustion.
• Short-term support at 0.002782 appears strong, with potential for consolidation ahead.

Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at 0.002784 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.002836, and closed at 0.002791 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.002761 and 0.002836 during the 24-hour window, with a total volume of 258.6196 and turnover of approximately 0.7323 BTC.

The price formed a bullish candle on 2025-09-23 at 06:45 ET, breaking above the 0.002829 level, but reversed in the morning, testing key support at 0.002782. A morning doji and bearish engulfing patterns indicated hesitation among buyers. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart moved above the 50-period line midday, signaling a temporary shift in momentum, though it reversed by the close.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include 0.002782, 0.002791, and 0.002802, with resistance at 0.002816, 0.002826, and 0.002836. A doji at 0.002807 on 05:45 ET and an engulfing pattern at 0.002809 on 06:45 ET suggested indecision and bearish pressure following a short-lived bullish breakout. The formation of a small bullish wedge during the overnight hours broke down as bearish momentum reasserted itself.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA briefly, indicating a short-term bullish tilt. However, by the close, the 20 MA had dipped below the 50 MA again, reflecting a bearish reversal. On a broader scale, the 50-period daily MA was just above 0.002800, suggesting a potential consolidation phase after the recent volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early on, confirming bullish momentum, but reversed as bearish pressure increased in the morning. The RSI hit overbought territory at 72 during the breakout at 0.002829 and then declined sharply, reaching 56 by the close. This bearish divergence signaled weakening momentum and potential for further pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:00–06:00 ET period, with the bands widening as price surged toward 0.002836. By the close, the price had pulled back into the lower half of the bands, indicating a potential retesting of support levels before any further upside could materialize.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout at 0.002829 and again during the bearish reversal at 0.002799, confirming price movements on both sides. However, the bearish reversal was accompanied by slightly lower turnover, indicating that the bearish move may not be as robust as the bullish breakout. No significant divergences were observed in volume, but caution is warranted given the uneven turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.002804 acted as a key pivot, with the price rebounding off it during the morning consolidation. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at 0.002792 appears to be a potential floor for the next 24-hour window, offering a possible target for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on today’s price action and the observed patterns, a potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout-followed-by-reversal model using a 15-minute chart. Traders might enter long on a break of the 0.002826 resistance with a stop below 0.002791, and then short the pair upon a bearish reversal candlestick, such as a doji or engulfing pattern. Given the recent RSI divergence and volume dynamics, this strategy would benefit from a trailing stop loss once the price consolidates around key Fibonacci levels. The recent increase in volatility and the presence of multiple support/resistance levels make this strategy particularly relevant for short-term traders aiming to capitalize on both bullish and bearish momentum.