Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – September 24, 2025

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• BTCPLN surged past 410k PLN, forming a bullish breakout on the 15-minute chart with high volume in the final hours.
• Momentum accelerated in the last 4.5 hours, with RSI crossing above 60 and MACD forming a positive divergence.
• Key support levels held at 404k and 406k, while a new resistance at 414k appears under immediate pressure.
• Volatility spiked 30% in the last 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price trading above the 20-period moving average.
• On-balance volume surged to 0.475 BTC, coinciding with the final candle before the 12:00 ET close, suggesting strong accumulation.

Price Action and Structure

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 408,750 PLN on September 23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 412,801 PLN the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a low of 403,722 PLN to a high of 414,491 PLN. The market displayed a strong bullish bias in the final 6 hours, with a decisive break above the 410,000 psychological level. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart between 15:00 and 15:15 ET, indicating renewed buying pressure.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Key resistance levels include the recent high of 414,491 PLN and the psychological 415k mark, while support is now likely to be found at 410k and the 406k zone, which previously contained a large bearish candle. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 403k to 414k swing is currently at 409,400, which may act as a short-term pivot level.

Technical Indicators

The RSI on the 15-minute chart reached 63, indicating moderate strength but not yet overbought, while the MACD line crossed above the signal line, forming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be catching the price, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price moved toward the upper band, signaling increased volatility and a higher probability of continuation.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is currently at 411,000, aligning closely with the price, indicating that the trend is well supported. The 50-period daily moving average is at 409,500, and the price is now comfortably above it, suggesting a strong bullish bias for the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 2.19 BTC, with a notional turnover of around 876.6 million PLN. The highest volume was recorded during the 15:00–15:15 ET timeframe, coinciding with a strong bullish breakout. This volume confirmed the price move and suggested that the rally was not a short-term spike but a meaningful shift in market sentiment.

Outlook and Risk Note

The immediate outlook remains bullish, with a potential target above 415k if the current momentum holds. However, a retest of the 410k support zone could provide a favorable entry point for cautious longs. Traders should remain alert to any unexpected regulatory news from Polish authorities or broader crypto market corrections, which could trigger a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on BTCPLN when the 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a surge in volume. The strategy would aim to exit on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement or a close below the 50-period moving average. Given the recent 15-minute chart dynamics, this strategy appears to have a strong case for validation, particularly in volatile breakout scenarios like the one observed on September 24.