Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – October 8, 2025

• Price surged from 441,069 to 449,817 before consolidating near 448,687
• Strong volume spikes observed during 08:45–09:15 ET and 14:15–14:45 ET
• RSI overbought conditions noted during 02:30–04:45 ET, followed by sharp retracement
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion during breakout above 447,219
• On-balance volume diverged slightly during late ET hours, hinting at mixed participation

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 441,069 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 448,687 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 449,817 and low of 438,519. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.469 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 656.21 million PLN. Price exhibited strong bullish momentum followed by consolidation, with key turning points observed in the late morning and early afternoon ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around 443,000 on the 15-minute chart, followed by a sharp bearish reversal near 449,800. A strong support level was observed around 443,000–444,000, with a key resistance at 447,219. A long-bodied bullish candle emerged at 08:45 ET, signaling renewed buying pressure. A doji formed at 23:45 ET–00:00 ET, suggesting indecision ahead of the new day’s surge.

Moving Averages

The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart moved higher in tandem with price, while the 50-period EMA lagged slightly, indicating a potential continuation in the short-term. The 50-period daily SMA supported the price at 442,500–443,000, with the 200-period SMA providing a long-term floor at 438,000. Price closed above the 100-period daily SMA for the first time in several sessions, signaling a possible shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive at around 08:30 ET and showed strong bullish divergence during the 09:00–10:30 ET window. RSI peaked above 75 during 02:30–03:00 ET, entering overbought territory, followed by a sharp retracement below 50. RSI later retested 65 in the late ET hours, indicating a potential resumption of buying pressure, though not yet reaching overbought levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 02:00–03:30 ET before widening during the 08:30–10:30 ET breakout. Price closed above the upper band at 449,817, confirming a strong break above 447,219. Volatility remained elevated in the final three hours of the session, suggesting traders were testing key resistance levels ahead of the close.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 08:45–09:00 ET and 14:15–14:45 ET windows, coinciding with the 447,219 and 449,817 price levels. Turnover increased by ~25% during these periods, confirming the price breakouts. However, a divergence appeared in the final hour, where volume slightly decreased despite continued price action, hinting at a potential consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute retracement levels showed price bouncing from the 38.2% level (443,400) and then testing the 61.8% level (447,200) before closing near 448,600. Daily Fibonacci levels aligned closely with the 100- and 200-period SMAs, with the 61.8% retracement level (447,200) acting as a key psychological barrier and breakout point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when price closes above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach would align with the bullish engulfing patterns and MACD divergence observed during key breakout periods. Given the recent overbought RSI levels and the divergence in volume, incorporating a trailing stop above the upper Bollinger Band at 449,817 could help manage risk during volatile consolidation.