Market Overview: Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – October 31, 2025

• BTCPLN broke below key support around 395,000, with bearish engulfing patterns forming.
• Intraday volatility surged, marked by a 400,000–408,000 range and uneven volume distribution.
• A late rally pushed the price to a 24-hour high of 408,966, but failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• MACD showed bearish divergence, while RSI (estimated) likely entered overbought levels briefly.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply, indicating a shift into higher volatility.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 396,091 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 406,304 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 408,966 and a low of 391,017. Total volume traded was 2.62 BTC, and notional turnover reached 1,062,955,590 PLN over the past 24 hours. The price action showed a choppy morning, a sharp afternoon rally, and a pullback in the evening.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish engulfing pattern around 395,000, followed by a strong but short-lived rebound. Key resistance levels emerged at 408,000 and 406,563, while critical support was retested at 395,000 and 391,000. A doji formed near 403,000, signaling potential indecision. The price failed to confirm the upper breakout, suggesting further consolidation is likely before a directional move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish bias in the early afternoon, but this was short-lived. The 50-period MA remains above the 20-period MA, indicating some lingering bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting the pair remains in a long-term bullish trend despite the recent intraday pullback.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the late afternoon, forming a bearish crossover, while the histogram began to shrink, hinting at weakening bearish momentum. RSI (estimated) peaked above 70 in the late morning, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a sharp drop below 50 as the price declined. This suggests that buyers are hesitant to step in at higher levels and that the pair could face further selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the afternoon rally, reaching a high of 408,966, before the price pulled back toward the lower band. The current price is trading near the middle band, indicating a period of consolidation. The wide bands suggest heightened volatility, likely driven by increased trading activity and large-volume orders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late afternoon rally, with large-volume candles forming around 406,000. However, the price failed to maintain those levels, indicating a possible lack of buyer conviction. Notional turnover remained relatively steady throughout the session, with no significant divergences noted. The largest single-volume candle occurred at 15:15 ET, contributing 0.03659 BTC to the total.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute move from 391,000 to 408,966 indicated key retracement levels at 398,300 (38.2%), 394,500 (50%), and 390,700 (61.8%). The price found support near the 50% and 61.8% levels, with the 61.8% acting as a critical short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level sits near 399,000, which may play a role in the next 24 hours if the price tests it.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price behavior and technical structure, a backtest using RSI-14 as a sell signal (RSI > 70, sell and hold for 3 days) could provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of a bearish bias in BTCPLN. While the data stream for BTCPLN is not ideal, using BTC/USDT as a proxy is a practical approach, as Bitcoin price action across fiat pairs is highly correlated. A full backtest using BTC/USDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-31 would help validate whether a short-term bearish strategy based on overbought RSI levels could have yielded profit. Alternatively, a synthetic BTCPLN series built from BTC/USD and USD/PLN could be used to preserve the PLN denomination if necessary.