Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN)

• Price surged 5.4% in 24 hours amid rising volume and consolidation above key 15-minute resistance.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged late overnight with a powerful 200-point reversal candle.
• Volatility expanded sharply during 10 PM – 3 AM ET, with price reaching a new 15-minute high.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 75+, suggesting potential near-term pullback.
• Notional turnover spiked 400% in the 1–2 AM ET window, confirming bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 438,117.00 PLN on October 4 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 447,811.00 PLN before closing at 443,361.00 PLN on October 5 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 1.53 BTC, with notional turnover reaching 691.25 million PLN. The pair displayed strong bullish momentum across multiple timeframes.

Structure & Formations

Price found a strong floor around 437,000–439,000 PLN before a late-night breakout. A large bullish reversal candle formed on October 4 at 22:45 ET, followed by a strong continuation into the early hours of October 5. A 15-minute doji appeared near 447,200 PLN, suggesting a possible topping formation. A key support level emerged at 440,000 PLN, where price rebounded sharply during the morning.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish, with price holding above both by October 5. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA supported the move upward, but the 200-period MA remained bearish, indicating mixed sentiment between short-term and long-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong positive crossover in the 1–3 AM ET window, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI reached overbought territory (75+) by 2 AM, signaling a potential near-term pullback. However, RSI remained above 50 throughout the session, indicating continued buyer dominance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late-night rally, pushing price above the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart. This suggests a strong breakout move. The bands had contracted earlier in the session, indicating a period of consolidation before the surge.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased steadily from 10 PM ET, peaking at 0.42 BTC during the 5:00 AM ET session, which coincided with a large bullish move. Notional turnover spiked by over 400% in the 1–2 AM ET window, confirming strong institutional or large-cap buyer activity. A divergence between price and turnover was observed around 6:00 AM ET, where volume dropped despite price continuing upward—suggesting caution from traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels were tested and held during the 10 PM–2 AM ET period. The 61.8% retracement level at 441,000 PLN acted as support before a sharp rebound. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent low at 437,000 to the high at 447,800 showed 38.2% (443,500 PLN) as the immediate target, which price just missed.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy focuses on entering long positions on a confirmed bullish breakout above the upper Bollinger Band with RSI above 50 and a positive MACD crossover. Short positions are triggered on a bearish reversal candle near overbought RSI levels (above 75), confirmed by a negative MACD divergence. This approach aligns with the observed market behavior, particularly the late-night breakout and subsequent overbought conditions. Testing this strategy on the 15-minute data would likely highlight strong returns during the October 4–5 period, though risk management would be crucial due to the rapid reversals and high volatility.