Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) - 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Bitcoin/Zloty declines from a high of 455000.0 to a close of 441411.0 amid mixed momentum and low turnover.
• Price tests key support levels below 447000.0, with bearish divergence observed in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility spikes during 19:00–20:30 ET, followed by a sharp selloff and consolidation near 441411.0.
• Bollinger Bands signal a contraction early in the session, followed by expansion as bearish pressure builds.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential support near 440000.0 after a 61.8% retracement of a key 15-minute move.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 453399.0 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 455000.0, and closed at 441411.0 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume amounted to 3.79692 BTC, with notional turnover reaching 1673099.0 PLN. The session was marked by choppy price action, bearish momentum, and a late-day selloff.

The price action displayed a bearish bias after a short-lived rally to 455000.0. Resistance at 455000.0 and 454593.0 failed to hold, and the price quickly reversed to test 447000.0, which acted as a key support level. A doji at 447000.0 and a long bearish shadow on the following candle indicated indecision. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line, signaling a bearish turn in short-term momentum.

The 20-period moving average (15-min) dipped below 451000.0 by the end of the session, and the 50-period MA showed a slow decline, suggesting a prolonged bearish bias. The RSI entered oversold territory near 30 and remained compressed, suggesting a potential rebound could be on the horizon. MACD crossed below the signal line in early ET time, confirming the bearish momentum. The MACD histogram shrank slightly during the final hours, hinting at a potential slowdown in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable contraction around 16:00–17:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price dropped. By the end of the session, the price closed near the lower band, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish move. On the Fibonacci scale, the 61.8% retracement level of a key 15-minute bullish swing (448116.0–455000.0) was 452900.0, which the price failed to hold, suggesting the bearish trend could continue.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence observed in RSI and the failure to hold key resistance levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias once the price breaks below 447000.0 with a stop above the doji high at 447463.0. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level at 443000.0, with a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5. This approach aligns with the observed RSI and MACD bearish signals and the volatility expansion seen in the latter half of the session.