Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-09-26)

• Price fell to a 24-hour low of 398,105.0 PLN but showed late-range reversal signs toward 401,812.0 PLN.
• Volatility expanded in early session with a 15-minute low of 395,577.0 PLN and a high of 407,808.0 PLN.
• Volume spiked during the 21:15–21:45 ET selloff, exceeding 0.075 BTC turnover.
• RSI remained in oversold territory, while MACD showed diverging bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci levels at 399,626.0–400,135.0 PLN appear to contain immediate bounce potential.

The BTCPLN pair opened at 406,162.00 PLN (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a 24-hour high of 407,808.00 PLN and a low of 395,577.00 PLN before closing at 399,323.00 PLN at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 5.104 BTC, with a notional turnover of 2,146,067.50 PLN. A bearish breakdown occurred during the early ET hours, followed by a fragmented attempt to stabilize above 398,000 PLN. Price failed to reclaim key resistance at 401,248.00 and 401,812.00, suggesting short-term bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a large bearish reversal candle at 21:15 ET, followed by a bearish continuation pattern during the 21:15–21:45 ET range. A bullish engulfing pattern formed briefly at the 04:30–05:00 ET hour, indicating short-term buying pressure. A key support level appears at 398,000.00–399,000.00 PLN, with Fibonacci retracement levels suggesting 399,626.00 and 400,135.00 as critical near-term resistance. A doji formed at 02:45–03:00 ET, hinting at indecision.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with price consistently below both. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are not available in this dataset, but the 50-period appears to have crossed below the 100-period, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price appears to be trending downward relative to its short-term moving averages, with no clear bullish crossover observed.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains bearish with a negative divergence in the second half of the session. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a potential bounce is likely, though momentum remains weak. A bearish divergence in MACD suggests further downward momentum could follow a short-term bounce. The RSI’s failure to rise above 40 despite some buying attempts implies bearish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the 18:15–21:15 ET range, with the upper band reaching 407,808.00 PLN and the lower band hitting 395,577.00 PLN. Price closed near the lower Bollinger band at 12:00 ET, indicating bearish exhaustion or potential oversold conditions. A bounce within the Bollinger band envelope may occur, but a break below the lower band could signal deeper losses.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 21:15–21:45 ET selloff, with 0.07561 BTC traded, and again at 05:30–06:00 ET with 0.0196 BTC traded. Turnover followed suit, confirming the strength of the selloff. The late-day volume (05:30–06:00) showed buying pressure but failed to reverse the trend, indicating weak follow-through. A divergence between volume and price is observed during the 21:45–22:15 ET range, where price dipped lower but volume remained muted.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 18:15–21:15 ET swing (high 407,808.00, low 395,577.00), key levels include 399,626.00 (23.6%), 400,135.00 (38.2%), and 400,562.00 (50%). Price closed just below the 23.6% level at 399,323.00, suggesting a potential bounce near these levels. A break below 395,577.00 could trigger a deeper decline toward 393,000.00 PLN.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could focus on oversold RSI conditions below 30, paired with volume spikes, as entry triggers for long positions. Given the recent price structure, a buy signal could be considered near the 399,626.00–400,135.00 PLN Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed below 398,000.00. A take-profit target may align with the 50% retracement at 400,562.00 PLN. However, MACD divergence suggests caution, as bullish momentum may be insufficient to break through key resistance levels. This strategy would need further testing across a larger sample of daily and 15-minute candles for robustness.