Market Overview: Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) 24-Hour Analysis

• BTCPLN rose from 384,604 to 393,613 PLN amid uneven volume.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, then contracted near session close.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed briefly before a late pullback.
• RSI showed overbought levels late morning, with a bearish divergence emerging by midday.
• Bollinger Band expansion early signaled increased volatility, with price later consolidating near the middle band.

BTCPLN opened at 384,604 PLN (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of 393,613 PLN before closing at 385,411 PLN at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 1.256 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 488,166,524 PLN.

The price action displayed a strong morning rally fueled by volume expansion, peaking near 393,613 PLN, followed by a consolidation phase with a bearish divergence in RSI and a narrowing Bollinger Band. Key resistance appears to be forming near the 390,000–393,000 PLN range, while a critical support level may be found at 385,000–386,000 PLN.

Candlestick Structure and Key Levels

Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing formation in the early morning and a potential bearish harami pattern in the afternoon. These patterns suggest conflicting signals between buyers and sellers. A doji formed at 23:45, indicating indecision ahead of the 00:00 candle, which saw a sharp reversal. Resistance levels of interest include the morning high near 393,613 PLN and the 390,000 psychological level, while the 385,000–386,000 range appears to be acting as a key support.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a potential near-term bearish bias. The RSI reached overbought territory during the morning surge but later declined below 50, indicating waning momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line, reinforcing a bearish turn in sentiment.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band volatility expanded in the early part of the session, reaching a width of approximately 12,000 PLN before narrowing back to 6,000 PLN by the close. Price spent the final 6 hours consolidating near the middle band, suggesting a period of consolidation or reversal may be in play. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the morning high to the afternoon low currently sits at 388,600 PLN, a potential target for near-term support.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Support/Resistance

Recent 15-minute swings suggest that key Fibonacci levels are at 388,600 (61.8%), 390,800 (50%), and 392,000 (38.2%) for resistance. For support, the 385,000–386,000 range appears to be a critical cluster. Daily traders may find these levels useful for placing limit orders or monitoring for breakouts.

Volume and Turnover Signals

Volume spiked during the early morning rally, peaking at ~0.12 BTC in the 01:30 ET candle, with a sharp decline afterward. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 46.2 million PLN before settling into a lower range of 5–10 million PLN in the final hours. The divergence between price and volume during the afternoon pullback may suggest a loss of conviction among buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the notable doji formation near the 389,204–389,065 PLN range on 2025-11-11, a potential backtesting strategy could evaluate the performance of a "doji-star" reversal pattern in BTCPLN over a historical dataset. A 3-day reversal strategy based on doji patterns—where a doji follows a long bullish or bearish candle—could be tested from 2022 to present. This would require validating the correct BTCPLN data source and ensuring consistency in candlestick structure and volume readings.