Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) on 2025-11-03

• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) experienced a sharp 24-hour decline, ending at 398,129 PLN, down 9.8% from the previous day’s 12:00 ET level.
• Volatility expanded with a 24-hour high of 407,546 PLN and a low of 386,332 PLN, indicating heightened trader uncertainty.
• Turnover increased during the sell-off but diverged from price in the final hours, signaling possible exhaustion or accumulation.
• Momentum indicators showed bearish divergence, with RSI dipping into oversold territory and MACD showing a weak bullish crossover late in the session.
• Key support levels emerged near 390,000 and 386,332 PLN, coinciding with Fibonacci and Bollinger Band confluence.

The 24-hour session for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) began at 405,331 PLN on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 398,129 PLN on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday high of 407,546 PLN and a low of 386,332 PLN, marking a significant 9.8% drawdown. Trading volume totaled approximately 2.08 BTC, with a notional turnover of roughly 833 million PLN.

The price action was driven by a bearish trend, marked by a long bearish candle on the daily chart. This was reinforced by a strong move below key Fibonacci retracement levels and the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. The formation of bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at the close suggested potential short-term exhaustion or a test of key supports. RSI dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, while MACD showed a weak bullish crossover near session close, hinting at possible short-term buying interest after a sharp decline.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, indicating increased volatility, with price finding support at the lower band near 386,332 PLN. A confluence of 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels aligned with this zone, suggesting a critical support cluster. Volume and turnover saw a modest increase during the decline but diverged in the final hour, indicating possible accumulation or a pause in selling pressure. The move also showed a break below the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, signaling a shift in trend.

The market appears to be testing the psychological level of 400,000 PLN as a potential near-term resistance. A retest of this level could offer traders a gauge of market sentiment and directional bias. However, the current bearish momentum and oversold conditions may set the stage for a short-term rebound, particularly if the key support levels hold. Investors should remain cautious of further downside risks, especially in the absence of a clear reversal pattern or a breakout above the 400,000 PLN threshold.

The market may see a potential rebound off the 386,332–390,000 PLN cluster, but a sustained break below this zone would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders are advised to monitor volume during any bounce, as low turnover could indicate a lack of conviction and a higher risk of further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish engulfing patterns and divergence between price and volume suggest potential short-term reversal signals. A backtest using the bearish engulfing pattern—particularly when it forms near key Fibonacci or Bollinger Band levels—could help quantify the likelihood of a bounce. Given the ticker ambiguity for BTCPLN, a substitute like BTC-USD or BTC-USDT might be used, with results converted to PLN for relevance. This approach would allow for a statistically grounded strategy based on the patterns seen in today’s session.