Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) - 2025-10-14

• Bitcoin/Zloty traded in a bearish range over the last 24 hours, ending near intraday lows.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum, with price testing support levels below 410,000 PLN.
• Volatility expanded into the early hours of the morning, with volume surging during the downtrend.
• Key Fibonacci levels coincided with psychological price points, reinforcing potential support.
• A failed bullish rebound in the overnight session suggests bearish bias for the near term.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 423,256 PLN on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 416,570 PLN the following day, after reaching a high of 428,719 PLN and a low of 411,600 PLN. Total volume traded was 2.1013 BTC, translating to a notional turnover of approximately 899.5 million PLN over 24 hours. Price action was bearish across the majority of the session, with a significant breakdown occurring during the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the range near 428,717 PLN, followed by a sharp reversal and a series of bearish inside bars. A key support level was identified around 411,600–412,000 PLN, where price briefly found a floor. A bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD reinforced the likelihood of a continued slide. No clear bullish reversal patterns emerged, and the structure favored continued selling pressure into support zones.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned bearish by the early morning session, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA to form a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MA structure was in bearish alignment, with the 50DMA below the 200DMA indicating medium-term bearish momentum. The price ended well below all three MAs, highlighting bearish alignment across timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the early morning, forming a bearish crossover as the histogram turned negative. RSI dipped below 30 during the early morning hours, indicating oversold conditions, though price continued lower despite this, suggesting weak bearish exhaustion. A bearish divergence in the RSI at higher levels reinforced the likelihood of further declines.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early morning hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp decline. Price ended near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A contraction in the bands had occurred prior to the breakout, suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish move into the next session if key support levels hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning decline, especially between 02:30 and 05:00 ET, where price fell from 422,000 to 416,500 PLN. Notional turnover spiked during this period, confirming the bearish breakdown. A divergence between the volume profile and price action was noted in the last hour of the session, with declining volume suggesting waning bearish conviction and possible short-term consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found initial support at 413,252 PLN, a 38.2% retracement of the previous upward swing. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish leg was at 411,600 PLN, coinciding with the morning floor. Price’s failure to rebound above 417,000 PLN suggests that key Fibonacci levels may be in play for the next leg down or for a potential bounce from 411,600 PLN.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish alignment of RSI and MACD, a backtest strategy based on RSI overbought conditions could be applied to BTCPLN. If RSI > 70 (the commonly accepted threshold) is used to define overbought, the strategy would look to short the pair on a close above 70, with a 3-day holding period. The recent peak at 428,719 PLN occurred when RSI was well above 70, confirming a potential trigger for a short signal. However, the failure to hold above 417,000 PLN indicates that a revised RSI threshold or additional confirmation from volume and MACD may be needed to improve signal accuracy.