Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) - 2025-10-04

• Price action showed strong intraday volatility with a high of 446,792 and low of 437,992 over the past 24 hours.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI oscillating between overbought and oversold zones.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, peaking during late ET hours and tapering off during Asian and European sessions.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 443,000 level, suggesting short-term resistance.
• Bollinger Bands indicated a moderate widening after a contraction, signaling renewed volatility.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 439,999 at 12:00 ET - 1, reached a high of 446,792, and closed at 437,992 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair experienced a 24-hour range of 8,799 PLN with total volume of approximately 0.873 BTC and a notional turnover of roughly 387,807 PLN. Price action was volatile, with several sharp swings observed in late ET and overnight trading hours.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern displayed a bearish reversal formation—most notably a large bearish engulfing candle forming around the 443,000 level. This pattern may indicate short-term pressure near key resistance levels. Additionally, a doji candle formed near 441,958, suggesting indecision among traders as the price approached support. These price formations may hint at potential consolidation or a reversal in the near term.

MACD showed diverging momentum during the session, with bullish and bearish crossovers occurring in response to intraday moves. The RSI indicator oscillated between overbought and oversold levels, with a temporary overbought reading of 75 and a dip to 30. This suggests choppy market conditions and potential exhaustion in both bullish and bearish phases. Bollinger Bands displayed a brief contraction, followed by a widening as volatility returned, indicating a possible resumption of directional trading.

Fibonacci retracement levels were tested multiple times during the session, particularly the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the 437,992–446,792 range. These levels acted as dynamic support and resistance, with the price consolidating around the 441,000–443,000 zone for a significant portion of the day. Volume distribution was skewed toward the late ET to early UTC hours, with the highest notional turnover occurring during the 4:45–5:45 AM ET window.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves using a combination of RSI and moving average crossovers to identify potential trade entries. Specifically, the strategy would initiate a short trade when RSI exceeds 70 and the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A long trade would be triggered when RSI drops below 30 and the 20-period MA crosses back above the 50-period MA. Stops and targets would be set based on the nearest Fibonacci retracement levels. This approach aligns with the observed RSI divergence and MA dynamics, making it a plausible candidate for testing on historical BTCPLN data.