Market Overview: Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – 2025-09-16

• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) traded in a narrow range overnight, capped by key resistance around 416,000 and supported near 413,000.
• RSI and MACD show mixed signals: overbought conditions at high but bearish divergence in volume and price.
• Volatility surged during midday breakouts, with intraday volume peaking near 416,700.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, with price hovering near the upper band during key rallies.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest 416,000 as a potential reversal point following sharp 15-minute moves.

At 12:00 ET–1, BTCPLN opened at 413,286, reached a high of 416,862, and closed at 413,777 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 410,528. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1.479 BTC, and notional turnover was 619,391.69 PLN.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern emerging at 416,862. A key support level at 413,777 appears to have held multiple times, forming a potential short-term floor. A doji at 415,327 signals indecision, while a bullish harami pattern at 413,899 suggests potential for a rebound. The price remains within a descending triangle pattern, with 416,000 as a critical resistance and 412,000 as a key support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA currently sits at ~414,438, while the 50-period MA is at ~414,805, showing a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at ~415,200, and the 200-period MA is at ~412,500, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend despite recent bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in midday, indicating a bearish turn in short-term momentum. The histogram has been shrinking, suggesting that downward pressure is easing. RSI reached overbought territory at 72 during midday, followed by a bearish divergence as price made higher highs but RSI made lower ones. RSI now stands at ~53, suggesting a neutral bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the upper band reaching ~416,900 and the lower band near ~413,300. Price remains just below the upper band at 416,862, indicating a potential short-term pullback. The midline of the bands is currently at ~415,100, which aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 0.03248 BTC during the 6:30–7:15 ET timeframe as price moved from ~417,500 to ~416,300, suggesting increased bearish pressure. However, turnover has lagged price, pointing to potential exhaustion among longs. A divergence between volume and price is evident after midday, with volume contracting despite continued price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 410,528 to 416,862, the 61.8% level is at ~414,700, and the 38.2% level is at ~415,800. These levels may offer resistance or support depending on market sentiment. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger move from 412,000 to 416,862 is near 415,500, which has shown repeated rejection in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (~415,800) on the 15-minute chart, provided the 50-period MA crosses above the 20-period MA and RSI remains above 50. Exit the trade upon a bearish MACD crossover or a break below 414,700. This approach capitalizes on the tug-of-war between Fibonacci support and MA crossover signals while managing risk on key price levels.