Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN): 2025-09-11 12:00 ET

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• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) traded in a choppy range overnight before surging near the 12:00 ET close.
• Price found key support at ~412,000 and tested resistance near 415,000, with a bullish breakout in the final hour.
• Volatility increased significantly, with turnover spiking to 186.5 million PLN in the 24-hour period.
• RSI and MACD showed divergences early in the session, but momentum shifted sharply toward the end of the day.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the close, suggesting short-term continuation of the upward bias.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) closed at 415,219 Zloty, up from an open of 413,200 Zloty the prior day. The pair hit a high of 416,541 and a low of 410,848 in the 24-hour window. Total volume was 2.069 BTC, while notional turnover reached 869.7 million Zloty. The price action reflected a strong rally in the final hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a key support level forming around 412,000, which was tested twice during the session and held. Between 16:00–18:00 ET, the price formed a bearish divergence with the RSI, followed by a large bearish engulfing candle. However, from 03:45–06:00 ET, a strong bullish trend emerged, with a final bullish engulfing pattern at 12:00 ET signaling a potential reversal. A doji candle formed near 415,300, hinting at indecision at the upper band.

Support & Resistance

Key support levels identified were ~412,000 and ~410,800, both of which held firm during the session. Resistance levels were noted at ~415,500 and ~416,500, with the latter being tested near the close but not yet decisively broken. The 415,000 level appears to be a short-term pivot.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged in the 413,000–414,000 range earlier in the session, indicating a period of consolidation. However, by 05:00 ET, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential bullish bias. The 200-period MA, at ~412,000, provided support for much of the session.

On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages were aligned around the 413,000–414,000 range, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish environment for the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bullish in the final hours of the session, with a positive divergence forming near 06:00 ET. The histogram showed increasing positive momentum in the last 3 hours, confirming the breakout. The RSI moved out of overbought territory in the middle of the session but surged back into overbought at 416,500, suggesting caution for short-term traders.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved within a wide Bollinger Band channel for most of the session, with the upper band reaching ~416,500 and the lower band ~410,800. A volatility contraction was observed between 19:00–22:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price surged. By the close, the price was near the upper band, suggesting a possible overbought condition and the potential for a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume picked up significantly in the final hour, reaching a peak of ~0.087 BTC, which coincided with the bullish breakout at 12:00 ET. Turnover also surged during this period, peaking at ~36.5 million Zloty, confirming the price action. Earlier in the session, a volume divergence was observed between 19:30–21:00 ET, where volume declined despite bearish price movement, suggesting a possible bottom was forming.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low at 410,848 and swing high at 416,541, key retracement levels were observed at 38.2% (~414,200) and 61.8% (~412,300). The price found support at the 61.8% level and rebounded sharply. This suggests a potential target for the next rally could be the 416,500 level, or possibly a new high if momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming near key support levels, such as 412,000, with a stop-loss placed just below the pattern. The use of the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA adds a confirmation filter, reducing false signals. Given the strong RSI and MACD divergence observed prior to the breakout, the strategy could also incorporate waiting for the RSI to re-enter neutral territory (~50–60) before entering a long position to avoid overbought entry. The strategy would aim for a take-profit target at the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Backtesting would be best suited for a 1-hour to daily timeframe, given the high volatility and volume seen during the 15-minute breakout phase.