Market Overview for Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) – 2025-09-05

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 409,360 PLN before correcting sharply.
• Volatility spiked with a 1.6% range, driven by late-day buying and selling pressure.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the bullish wave, raising bearish momentum concerns.
• On-balance volume trends confirmed price strength during the morning rally but diverged during the afternoon drop.

Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 399,473 PLN on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 407,826 PLN on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 409,360 PLN, and the low was 399,473 PLN. Total volume was 2.3816 BTC, with a notional turnover of 959,315,290 PLN.

Structure & Formations

Price broke through a key resistance level near 406,000 PLN in the late morning but failed to hold above it. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed around 408,000 PLN during the 07:15–07:30 ET window, indicating potential short-term buying interest. However, the formation was countered by a bearish abandonment of the high near 409,360 PLN, followed by a sharp reversal into a bearish flag pattern from 409,000–406,000 PLN. A doji at 407,601 PLN suggests indecision among market participants.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price during the morning surge, confirming the bullish momentum. However, the 50 EMA started to diverge from the price after 08:00 ET, signaling weakening bullish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is currently at ~407,200 PLN, while the 200-period SMA sits at ~400,400 PLN—price is above both, indicating a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning session, confirming bullish momentum, but the histogram began to shrink after 08:00 ET as the rally slowed. RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) during the bullish phase but fell back below 60 by the end of the session, reflecting mixed sentiment. Divergence between the RSI and price in the late afternoon suggests caution ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated with a 15-minute Bollinger Band width of ~2.6% from 06:30–09:00 ET, with price testing the upper band multiple times. A temporary contraction in the late afternoon (03:30–04:30 ET) suggested a potential reversal, which was partially confirmed by the bearish pullback. Price is now hovering slightly above the 20-period moving average line, indicating moderate strength.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally (06:30–08:00 ET) with ~0.274 BTC traded in a single 15-minute interval, supporting the price action. However, volume dropped significantly during the afternoon decline, with many candles closing with minimal volume despite sharp price moves—suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish phase. Notional turnover also lagged during the afternoon sell-off, indicating weak follow-through from large orders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the morning high (409,360 PLN) to the afternoon low (406,000 PLN) include 408,320 PLN (38.2%) and 407,120 PLN (61.8%). Price briefly held at 407,120 PLN before retreating further, suggesting the level could act as a near-term support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move from 399,473–409,360 PLN is at ~405,000 PLN, which may become a watch-level for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the morning bullish engulfing pattern and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as an entry trigger, a long-biased strategy may have entered near 408,200 PLN with a stop-loss below 406,800 PLN. The move above the 407,120 PLN 61.8% level would have justified holding the position. This suggests a potential short-term breakout and pullback-based strategy could work if combined with volume and RSI divergence signals.