Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – September 13, 2025

• BTCJPY saw a 24-hour high of ¥17,196,968 but closed at ¥17,157,985, showing bearish reversal signs
• Price traded inside a descending triangle formation on 15-minute charts
• Volume spiked during mid-day rallies but failed to confirm higher highs
• RSI near 50 suggests balanced momentum, but MACD shows bearish divergence
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction, signaling potential volatility ahead

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥17,047,840 on September 12, 12:00 ET, and reached a high of ¥17,196,968 before closing at ¥17,157,985 on September 13, 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 59.49 BTC and a notional turnover of ¥10.28 billion.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a descending triangle pattern forming, with resistance at ¥17,196,968 and support near ¥17,114,659. A long-legged doji at ¥17,169,999 and a bearish engulfing pattern at ¥17,194,480 signal potential exhaustion at the highs. A key pivot appears to have formed at ¥17,157,985, with price testing this level multiple times.

Moving Averages

Price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart, suggesting short-term bearish bias. Daily MA levels are not available here, but the 50/100/200-day lines are expected to be below current price, reinforcing a long-term bullish setup against short-term bearish near-term action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish engulfing patterns and the failure to close above ¥17,196,968, a possible backtesting strategy could involve a short bias with a stop just above ¥17,233,308 (the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart). A target could be placed at ¥17,117,633, the next major support level based on recent volume profiles.

MACD & RSI

MACD is in a negative territory, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI is near 50, showing a balanced market but with divergences emerging between price and momentum. This suggests a higher likelihood of a pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading within a moderate Bollinger Band contraction, with recent volatility breaking out slightly but not decisively. The upper band sits near ¥17,196,968, and the lower band at ¥17,114,659. Price is currently sitting just below the middle band, suggesting a potential continuation or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during mid-day hours as price approached ¥17,196,968 but failed to confirm a breakout. Turnover was highest between 18:00–20:00 ET, aligning with the strongest rally. Divergence between price and volume during the morning session indicates possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (¥17,039,849 to ¥17,196,968), the 61.8% retracement level is at ¥17,157,985—precisely where price closed. This level has now acted as a key pivot point and may see further testing in the coming 24 hours.

Given the current structure and technical indicators, price appears to be consolidating ahead of a potential breakout or breakdown. A break below ¥17,114,659 could accelerate the near-term bearish phase, while a retest of ¥17,196,968 with strong volume might trigger a short-covering rally. Investors should remain cautious as volatility is likely to expand in the next 24 hours.