Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) — October 8, 2025

• • •

• BTCJPY rose from 18,384,844 to 18,796,050 JPY, with 59.5% of volume concentrated in the final 6 hours.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 18,500,000 JPY, coinciding with strong volume and momentum.
• RSI surged toward overbought levels, suggesting short-term continuation or exhaustion of upward bias.
• Volatility expanded significantly as prices pushed through prior resistance and tested new highs.
• Bollinger Bands widened after a period of consolidation, signaling increased directional uncertainty.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) traded in a range between 18,344,523 JPY and 18,849,869 JPY, opening at 18,384,844 JPY on October 7 at 12:00 ET and closing at 18,796,050 JPY on October 8 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 40.72 BTC, and notional turnover reached 7,637,127,432 JPY. The 24-hour period saw a strong upward bias, especially in the last 6 hours of trading, with prices closing near their high.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a strong bullish reversal from a key support level near 18,500,000 JPY, where a bullish engulfing pattern emerged. This pattern was confirmed by strong volume and a rapid move above the 18,600,000 JPY psychological level. A tapering wedge pattern developed from the midday trading session, breaking to the upside around 18,762,515 JPY. The move was supported by a Doji at 18,762,515 JPY, suggesting indecision and a potential consolidation pause.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment, with prices trading well above both indicators for most of the final 6 hours of the period. On the daily chart (synthetic), the 50-period MA is trending upward and crossed above the 100-period MA, forming a golden cross, which is a strong technical signal in favor of continuation. The 200-period MA remains a key long-term support area around 18,400,000 JPY.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a rapid expansion in bullish momentum, particularly in the last 4 hours before the close. The RSI moved into overbought territory, peaking above 70, which could indicate either a continuation of the bullish trend or a potential pullback. A divergence between the RSI and price action is yet to emerge, but the overbought level should be monitored for signs of weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as volatility increased during the breakout. Prices traded just above the upper band for a majority of the final 3 hours, indicating strong bullish pressure. A contraction in the bands was observed around 18,500,000 JPY before the breakout, which may be viewed as a consolidation phase preceding the upward move. The upper band at 18,849,869 JPY is now serving as a new short-term resistance level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout, particularly between 08:00 ET and 12:00 ET, with the largest individual candle (18,762,515 JPY) contributing over 2.01 BTC in volume. The notional turnover also surged in line with price gains, confirming the strength of the move. A positive price/volume divergence was observed in the final hour, suggesting continued accumulation by strong hands.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent swing from 18,517,746 JPY to 18,849,869 JPY aligns with key Fibonacci levels. The 61.8% retracement at approximately 18,730,000 JPY acted as a minor support during consolidation phases. The 23.6% retracement at 18,680,000 JPY was a key trigger level for further bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from a major bearish swing earlier in the month is currently at 18,560,000 JPY, acting as potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy could focus on entries triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern near key Fibonacci levels, especially when confirmed by volume and RSI divergence. A long entry could be placed upon a breakout above the 18,762,515 JPY level, with a stop-loss below the 18,500,000 JPY support and a target near the 18,849,869 JPY recent high. The strategy would also benefit from a trailing stop to capture potential continuation. The overbought RSI and strong MACD signal high conviction in the direction, but caution is advised if the price closes below the 18,560,000 JPY Fibonacci level in the next 24 hours.