Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) - October 3, 2025

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• BTCJPY rose 1.07% over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high amid increasing volume and consolidation above key support.
• Momentum turned neutral post-noon ET with RSI near overbought levels and price within upper Bollinger bands.
• Volume surged during the Asian session, peaking with a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 17687k marked initial support, later broken and retested during a 20:30–21:30 ET consolidation.
• Price remains above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart but faces near-term resistance at 17750k and 17800k.

24-Hour Snapshot

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 17,617,080 JPY on October 2, 2025, and closed at 17,700,000 JPY at 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair reached an intraday high of 17,834,385 JPY and a low of 17,583,593 JPY, reflecting a 1.07% gain. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was approximately 109.37 BTC, with a notional turnover of ¥19.13 billion, highlighting increased liquidity and investor interest.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong bullish breakout in the early Asian session, with a 19:15 ET candle forming a bullish engulfing pattern that confirmed a shift in momentum. This breakout was followed by a test of the 17750k psychological level and a subsequent consolidation phase. A doji formed at 21:30 ET, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers. A key support level was observed at 17687k, which was twice tested and respected, and a resistance level at 17750k, which was approached and stalled at during the late hours of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed above the 20-period EMA at 17,702,500 JPY and the 50-period EMA at 17,694,000 JPY, suggesting continued short-term bullish bias. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart is expected to cross above the 100-period EMA in the next 24 hours, signaling a potential continuation of the trend. Price remains above the 200-period EMA at 17,645,000 JPY, indicating a long-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before 19:00 ET and remained positive throughout the session, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The histogram expanded during the breakout phase and later contracted as the pair consolidated. The RSI reached 62 by 10:00 ET, indicating overbought territory. However, it pulled back to 58 by session close, suggesting that the upward momentum remains intact but may require a pullback for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakout phase, with price reaching the upper Bollinger band at 17,834,385 JPY. Subsequent consolidation saw price fall within the bands and hover closer to the upper band. The width of the bands increased, reflecting higher volatility. A contraction is expected if price continues to consolidate near the upper band, potentially leading to a new breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the Asian session, particularly between 19:00 ET and 20:30 ET, when the pair surged from 17,679,272 JPY to 17,809,636 JPY. Turnover mirrored this pattern, peaking at ¥1.1 billion during the same period. The 19:15 ET candle had the highest volume of the session at 1.82 BTC and was accompanied by a large bullish engulfing pattern. There was no significant divergence between price and volume, reinforcing the strength of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the recent 15-minute swing were identified as follows: the 23.6% at 17,735k, 38.2% at 17,763k, 50% at 17,782k, and 61.8% at 17,801k. Price tested the 61.8% level multiple times before pulling back. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from a prior move was at 17,693k, which acted as support during the consolidation phase. The 61.8% level at 17,762k is expected to be a key resistance in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering long positions when BTCJPY closes above both the 20 and 50-period EMAs on the 15-minute chart, combined with an RSI reading above 50 and a bullish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss would be placed at the most recent support level, and a take-profit target would be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent volume confirmation and the breakout pattern, this setup has shown historical success in similar market conditions. The strategy would benefit from higher volatility and liquidity, as seen in this session.