Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-11-11

• Price surged toward ¥16.6M before correcting to ¥16.2M.• Momentum turned bearish post-¥16.5M peak with RSI showing overbought conditions.• Volume spiked during the rally but declined on pullbacks, signaling weakening conviction.

Opening Observations

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,198,376 at 12:00 ET-1 and surged to a high of ¥16,603,840 before retreating sharply to close at ¥16,229,788 as of 12:00 ET. The 24-hour candle formed a bearish rejection pattern, with total volume reaching approximately 122.5 BTC and turnover amounting to roughly ¥2,034,187,000. The price action suggests heightened volatility and a possible shift in short-term sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The price reached a key resistance level near ¥16.6M, but a bearish engulfing pattern emerged as it closed below ¥16.5M. A strong support zone appears to be forming between ¥16.2M and ¥16.3M, where the price has found a temporary floor twice. A hanging man candle appeared near the ¥16.5M level, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish wave.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA mid-day, forming a golden cross before the price corrected. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, maintaining a bullish trend. However, the recent pullback may test the 20-day MA as a potential support.

Momentum & Volatility

The MACD turned negative after the ¥16.6M peak, signaling weakening momentum. RSI reached 75, suggesting overbought conditions during the rally and now has corrected to around 50. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the ¥16.6M run, indicating increased volatility. The price closed near the upper band at the peak but has since retracted to the middle band, suggesting balanced forces for now.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the ¥16.6M rally, reaching a peak of ~8 BTC, but dropped to ~1–2 BTC during the pullback phase. This divergence between price and volume suggests weaker conviction in the rally. Turnover also surged during the rally and has declined in line with the price correction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The ¥16.6M–¥16.2M swing shows the price testing the 61.8% retracement level around ¥16.3M before pulling back further. The 50% level is near ¥16.4M and could act as a pivot point. If the price breaks below ¥16.3M, the 38.2% retracement at ¥16.25M may offer some support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using Bullish Engulfing and RSI(14) crossover signals was applied, incorporating a 7% stop-loss, 20% take-profit target, and a 20-day holding period. The results showed that while the rally toward ¥16.6M could have triggered a trade signal, the sharp pullback shortly thereafter would have triggered the stop-loss. This suggests that while the setup is theoretically sound, tighter risk parameters or additional filters may be necessary in highly volatile conditions like the current BTCJPY environment.