Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-11-09

• BTCJPY declined 1.7% over the last 24 hours with a 15-minute close at 15,651,518.
• Key support tested at 15,600,000, with a bearish Marubozu-White pattern observed on the 15-min chart.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 50, while Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility.
• Volume increased in the final 6 hours but failed to confirm a strong rebound, signaling caution ahead.

The Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) pair opened at 15,612,130 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 15,651,518 on 2025-11-09 at the same time. The 24-hour range was between a high of 15,739,336 and a low of 15,573,886. Total volume traded was 68.78 BTC, with notional turnover of ¥10,908,525,030. A bearish Marubozu-White candle formed near session highs, signaling potential rejection of recent bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a key bearish Marubozu-White candle, indicating a strong rejection of higher prices. The structure suggests a short-term pivot at 15,600,000 as a critical support zone. A bullish engulfing pattern failed to confirm a reversal, and subsequent bearish momentum pulled prices below critical moving averages. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 15,652,000 coincided with a prior high, now acting as a minor resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed below both 20 and 50-period SMAs, suggesting a near-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price remains above the 50 and 100-day moving averages but below the 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed bias—moderately bullish in the medium term but bearish in the very short term. The divergence between short and long-term averages may indicate a potential consolidation phase ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the final hours of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The histogram showed a narrowing gap, indicating waning momentum. RSI fell below 50 to 43, suggesting oversold conditions may develop, though the indicator has not yet reached the 30 threshold. A bounce above 15,650,000 could trigger a retest of the 50–60 RSI range.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with volatility increasing in the final hours. The bands widened slightly as price approached the 15,700,000–15,750,000 range, indicating heightened uncertainty. A break below the lower band would signal a stronger bearish phase, while a move above the upper band could indicate a resumption of short-term bullish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final 6 hours, particularly after 22:00 ET, as price moved toward the 15,700,000 level. However, volume failed to confirm a strong rebound, suggesting waning buyer interest. Total notional turnover reached ¥10.9 billion, concentrated in the final 8–10 hours of the session. A divergence between price and volume raises caution for further downside in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 15,573,886 low to the 15,739,336 high is at 15,640,000—currently being tested. The 61.8% retracement is at 15,652,000 and may offer resistance or a potential pivot for a short-term bounce. A move below the 15,600,000 level would trigger a retest of the 15,570,000–15,580,000 range, which could offer temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the Marubozu-White candlestick pattern on BTCJPY from January 2022 to November 2025 showed limited capital efficiency. While the pattern occasionally generated profitable short-term trades, it lacked frequency and consistency. Cumulative returns were modest at +2.42% over ~3.9 years, with an average trade return of +0.30%. The low Sharpe ratio of 0.56 and maximum drawdown of 1.41% suggest the strategy’s risk-adjusted returns are marginal. Extending the holding period or combining with volume/momentum filters could improve the edge, but this would need to be tested in live conditions to confirm robustness.