Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-10-31

• Bitcoin/Yen declined sharply from ¥16.7M to ¥16.5M amid heavy selling pressure.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near ¥16.7M, followed by a sharp correction.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening and RSI approaching oversold levels.
• Turnover surged during the drop, confirming the breakdown from key resistance.
• Price found temporary support near ¥16.5M but remains vulnerable to further declines.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,632,000 and reached a high of ¥16,712,781 before plunging to a low of ¥16,400,000, closing at ¥16,997,412 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of approximately 279.57 BTC and a notional turnover of ¥4,550,000,000. The market exhibited bearish momentum with notable volatility and divergences in price and volume.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart displayed a strong bearish reversal pattern as a large bearish engulfing candle formed at ¥16,712,781, signaling a potential top. This was followed by a sharp decline, with the price dropping below key support levels into the ¥16,400,000 zone. A doji appeared near ¥16,543,800, suggesting a potential pause in the downward trend, although bears maintained control. The price remains below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, indicating a short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages remained unbroken, with BTCJPY remaining below the 200-period MA, suggesting the larger trend remains bearish. The price’s inability to cross above the 50-period MA raises concerns about near-term momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the histogram narrowing, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory around 27–30 during the sharp selloff, but this did not trigger a strong rebound. Instead, the RSI remained in a downward trend, suggesting that the bearish pressure may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged as Bollinger Bands expanded, with the price falling significantly below the lower band during the selloff. This volatility expansion often precedes a reversion to the mean, though the current price remains well below the 20-period moving average. The narrowing of the bands in the late hours suggests a potential consolidation phase, which may lead to a breakout either higher or lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early hours of the selloff, particularly between ¥16.6M and ¥16.4M, confirming the breakdown in price. Turnover surged in tandem, indicating strong conviction from sellers. However, volume has decreased in the last 6 hours, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the downward move. A divergence between declining price and volume could signal a near-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥16.7M to ¥16.4M showed key support levels at ¥16.55M (38.2%) and ¥16.5M (61.8%). The price found a temporary floor at ¥16.4M, below the 61.8% level, suggesting further downside risk if this support fails. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent high indicate critical resistance near ¥17.0M and ¥17.2M, which may be tested in a reversal scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential of BTCJPY for a Morning Star pattern, a reliable data source is essential. The current dataset does not support this specific pattern recognition due to an inability to recognize the ticker. However, the observed candlestick behavior and price-volume dynamics align with bearish trend continuation. A backtest using BTC/USD as a proxy or by confirming the correct ticker (e.g., “BTC/JPY” or exchange-specific format) would allow for a more precise evaluation of pattern performance. Future analysis could use this 24-hour data as a test case for short-term reversal strategies.