Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-10-14

• Bitcoin/Yen trades lower on the 24-hour period, closing at 16,992,173 with 6.8% of turnover concentrated in the final 6 hours.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought conditions earlier in the session, followed by a bearish reversal into oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded early, peaked at 17,682,600, then gradually contracted as the price drifted lower.
• A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17,660,023 to 17,633,799, hinting at short-term bearish bias.
• Fibonacci levels from the 17,682,600 high to the 16,782,1397 low show key support at 17,000,000 and 16,850,000.

24-Hour Price Summary

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 17,452,500 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET and closed at 16,992,173 as of 2025-10-14 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 17,682,600, while the low fell to 16,782,1397. Total volume traded was 92.85 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥15,728,429,323 (calculated using an average price of ¥169,546). The price action shows a clear bearish reversal from a strong intraday high to a lower close.

Key Structures and Candlestick Patterns

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish breakout from 17,588,589 to 17,682,600, followed by a bearish reversal into a potential bearish engulfing pattern at 17,660,023 to 17,633,799. This pattern suggests a possible short-term top formation. The session closed near the lower end of the range, indicating bearish exhaustion. Support levels at 17,000,000 and 16,850,000 are now critical, with a possible retest expected.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA and 50-period SMA are currently bearish, with the price closing below both. The daily chart confirms a bearish bias with all key moving averages (50, 100, 200) in a descending order. MACD turned bearish in the final hours, with a clear bearish crossover and declining histogram. RSI dropped from overbought levels (above 70) to oversold territory (below 30), indicating exhaustion in the bearish move and potential near-term stabilisation.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply in the early hours of the session and later began to contract. The price spent the majority of the session outside the upper band before rolling lower and settling near the lower band. This suggests a period of high volatility followed by a consolidation phase. The narrowing bands may indicate a potential breakout or reversal in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked to 1.41 BTC at 00:15 ET as the price pushed toward the 17,611,094 high, but declined sharply afterward as the price retreated. This divergence suggests weakening bullish momentum. On the flip side, volume increased in the final 6 hours as the price broke through key support levels, suggesting confirmation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 17,682,600 high to the 16,782,1397 low, key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (17,256,564), 50% (17,232,365), 61.8% (17,208,166) are now likely resistance levels. The 50% level was briefly tested but broken through. The next significant support is at 17,000,000, with 16,850,000 as a critical psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a short-term RSI-based backtest could be viable. The RSI oversold condition at 30 suggests a possible short-term bounce or consolidation before further bearish movement. If historical data showed bearish engulfing patterns forming near these levels, a combined RSI and pattern-based strategy could improve accuracy. However, without precise dates of the bearish engulfing signals, the strategy remains incomplete. If provided, the backtest could incorporate both momentum (RSI) and pattern signals for enhanced decision-making.