Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-10-13

• Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥17,175,153 and surged to ¥17,657,691 before closing at ¥17,468,100
• A bullish flag pattern formed between ¥17,420,000 and ¥17,657,691 with strong volume near highs
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at intraday highs, while MACD shows positive divergence
• Volatility expanded during the Asian session, with Bollinger Bands widening post-¥17,500,000
• Notional turnover reached ¥48.3 billion, with price-volume divergence observed during the sell-off

BTCJPY opened at ¥17,175,153 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥17,468,100 the next day, reaching an intraday high of ¥17,657,691 and a low of ¥17,155,455. Total volume traded was 145.03 BTC, with notional turnover at ¥48.29 billion (¥48,289,365,999). The 24-hour session showed strong volatility, especially during the Asian and European sessions, with price breaking above ¥17,500,000 multiple times before consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours displayed a classic bullish flag pattern between ¥17,420,000 and ¥17,657,691, with the consolidation period forming after a sharp break above ¥17,500,000. A notable engulfing candle formed on October 12 at 22:15 ET, confirming the upward breakout. Toward the close, the market showed signs of exhaustion with a bearish dark cloud cover pattern forming after ¥17,650,000. Key support levels appear at ¥17,500,000 and ¥17,400,000, while ¥17,660,000 and ¥17,750,000 could serve as next resistance targets.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (¥17,495,000) is above the 50SMA (¥17,432,000), suggesting a short-term bullish bias. However, the 50SMA is catching up as price pulls back near ¥17,450,000. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (¥17,480,000) is above the 200DMA (¥17,345,000), indicating a longer-term uptrend. The 100DMA at ¥17,410,000 could offer support if the market faces another short-term correction.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed above the signal line (golden cross) around ¥17,480,000, with a positive divergence forming as price made higher lows while the MACD made lower lows during the consolidation phase. RSI reached overbought territory above 65 multiple times, especially after ¥17,600,000, but failed to break above 70, indicating limited upside momentum. The RSI’s pullback below 60 suggests the market may consolidate in the ¥17,450,000–¥17,550,000 range in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after ¥17,500,000 as volatility increased during the Asian and European sessions. Price remained near the upper band for much of the day, indicating bullish momentum and overextension in the ¥17,500,000–¥17,650,000 range. The lower band at ¥17,410,000 acted as a strong support level during the afternoon. A contraction in the bands may occur if the market enters consolidation, with the 20-period standard deviation at around ¥17,535,000.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the Asian session, especially around ¥17,500,000 and ¥17,600,000, confirming the price breakouts. However, a divergence occurred during the European and U.S. sessions, where volume dropped despite price attempting to make new highs. Notional turnover reached ¥48.3 billion, with a concentration of trading around ¥17,500,000–¥17,650,000. The lower volume in the final 4–6 hours suggests reduced conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour range (¥17,155,455 to ¥17,657,691), the 38.2% level is at ¥17,477,000 and the 61.8% level at ¥17,375,000. Price found support at the 38.2% level before closing the session. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent ¥17,300,000–¥17,650,000 move is at ¥17,475,000, aligning with the 15-minute 38.2% level. These areas are likely to see renewed interest in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The 15-minute MACD golden cross strategy is a potential edge in BTCJPY, as evidenced by the positive divergence and volume confirmation observed in this session. However, due to the backtesting engine's current limitations, the strategy must be approximated using daily data. A daily MACD golden cross could serve as the entry signal, with a close at the next day’s open or close. This would offer a rough approximation of the strategy’s viability without the precision of intraday execution. If this approach yields positive returns in backtesting, it may justify waiting for intraday capability to refine the signal for shorter-term trades.