Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-10-10

• BTCJPY opened at ¥18,558,505 and reached a high of ¥18,730,000 before closing at ¥18,593,677, showing a volatile 24-hour range.
• A sharp sell-off from ¥18,613,344 to ¥18,419,526 was partially recovered but left bearish momentum concerns.
• RSI hit oversold territory in the afternoon, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Volume spiked during the midday sell-off, while turnover was uneven, hinting at selective participation.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed after the 10/10 03:30 ET low, indicating potential near-term support.

BTCJPY opened at ¥18,558,505 on 2025-10-09 and closed at ¥18,593,677 on 2025-10-10, hitting an intraday high of ¥18,730,000 and a low of ¥18,003,576. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 82.35 BTC, with notional turnover of approximately ¥13.6 billion. The pair exhibited a wide trading range amid alternating bullish and bearish pressure, with a notable drop late in the day.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed multiple key structures: a bearish breakdown occurred between ¥18,600,000 and ¥18,400,000 in the afternoon, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern. A bullish reversal was attempted around ¥18,400,000, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming after the 10/10 03:30 ET low. A doji appeared near ¥18,500,000 in the evening, signaling indecision. Key support levels emerged at ¥18,400,000, ¥18,300,000, and ¥18,200,000, while resistance levels were seen at ¥18,600,000, ¥18,700,000, and ¥18,800,000.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting continued short-term bearish pressure. The 50-period MA was at ¥18,580,000, while the 20-period MA was at ¥18,593,000. The daily chart indicated BTCJPY trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, reinforcing a bearish bias at higher timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the morning, with the line dipping below the signal line and staying negative. The histogram reflected diminishing bearish momentum by late afternoon. RSI, on the other hand, fell into oversold territory around ¥18,400,000, hitting 28–30 before rebounding. While this suggests potential for a short-term bounce, the absence of a strong bullish divergence weakens the case for a sustained reversal.

Bollinger Bands

BTCJPY spent the morning within the Bollinger Bands, but a sharp sell-off in the afternoon pushed it significantly below the lower band, reaching as low as ¥18,003,576. Volatility increased as the bands expanded. The price has since partially re-entered the band range, suggesting that the selloff may be nearing an exhaustion point, but caution is warranted as the bands remain wide.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sell-off from ¥18,600,000 to ¥18,400,000, indicating strong bearish conviction. However, volume declined sharply during the attempted recovery, raising questions about follow-through buying. Notional turnover was uneven, with the largest single 15-minute turnover occurring during the midday drop. Price and volume appear aligned in bearish sentiment but with weak confirmation for a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 10/10 13:00 ET swing high of ¥18,656,491 and the 10/10 15:45 ET low of ¥18,003,576, key levels were identified: the 38.2% retracement at ¥18,340,000 and the 61.8% at ¥18,500,000. BTCJPY tested the 61.8% level twice, with indecision on the doji and mixed volume, suggesting that a break above ¥18,550,000 may be needed for further optimism.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern observed during the midday sell-off, combined with a RSI in oversold territory. This combination historically indicates short-term rebounds, especially when paired with a recovery in volume. A long bias could be triggered upon BTCJPY reclaiming the 15-minute 20-period MA with bullish confirmation, such as a bullish engulfing pattern and RSI above 35.