Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-10-06

• Bitcoin/Yen closed higher at 18,486,497 JPY after a 24-hour high of 18,753,932 JPY, with increased volume and momentum.

• The 24-hour period showed a bullish reversal pattern after a sharp decline, with RSI showing overbought conditions toward the close.

• Volatility expanded significantly following the 04:00–06:00 ET window, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band and closing near it.

• Turnover spiked during the early morning hours, especially around 04:15–06:30 ET, showing strong buying pressure and potential accumulation.

• Fibonacci retracements identified key support levels at 18,457,293 JPY and resistance near 18,624,203 JPY, indicating potential for a test of these levels in the next 24 hours.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 18,114,240 JPY on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 18,486,497 JPY the following day. The pair reached a high of 18,753,932 JPY and a low of 18,065,455 JPY, with total traded volume of 107.79 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately ¥19,938,172,929 (JPY) over the 24-hour period.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a strong bullish reversal with a long lower wick and a close near the high. This pattern is often interpreted as a sign of increasing buying pressure after a sharp decline. The price action also saw a key breakout above the upper Bollinger Band following a volatility expansion, with the RSI hitting overbought levels (above 70) in the closing hours. The 20-period moving average was crossed upward by price late in the session, indicating a possible continuation of bullish momentum.

The formation of a strong bullish engulfing pattern was observed around 06:00–06:30 ET, where a large bullish candle followed a bearish one, reinforcing the reversal narrative. A doji formed around 07:30–07:45 ET, signaling potential indecision at higher levels. Key support levels were identified at 18,457,293 JPY (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 18,447,940 JPY (congestion zone). Resistance was noted at 18,624,203 JPY and 18,703,672 JPY. The price appears to be favoring bullish continuation but could face short-term profit-taking pressure near 18,624,203 JPY.

The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a bullish crossover and remained positive throughout the session, supporting the continuation of upward momentum. The histogram was expanding through the afternoon and evening, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. RSI oscillated within a tight range in the first half of the day before surging past 70 in the closing hours, suggesting the price may be overbought and could face a pullback. The 20-period moving average was crossed above at 04:15–06:30 ET, with the 50-period line also in bullish alignment. The 50-period daily MA crossed above the 200-period line, suggesting a potential medium-term uptrend could be emerging.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the strong buying pressure evident in the volume spikes during the 04:00–06:30 ET window, a backtesting strategy could be developed based on a breakout above a dynamic support-turned-resistance level, such as the 18,624,203 JPY level, with a stop-loss placed below the 18,457,293 JPY support. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of bullish momentum using a long entry above the upper Bollinger Band, with a target at the next Fibonacci level or 18,703,672 JPY. The 50-period moving average could also serve as a dynamic confirmation filter, with entries only taken when price closes above it. Given the strong MACD and RSI signals, such a strategy appears to have a high probability of success in the short term.