Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-10-04

• BTCJPY opened at ¥17,973,513 and closed at ¥18,016,218 after a volatile 24-hour range between ¥17,953,128 and ¥18,178,760.
• Momentum was mixed, with RSI hovering near 50 and no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Volatility increased in the afternoon, but volume and turnover remained subdued, suggesting limited conviction in price swings.
• A key 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern appeared in the ¥18,015,946–¥18,044,236 range, signaling potential short-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion after 19:00 ET, reflecting growing uncertainty in price direction.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, BTCJPY opened at ¥17,973,513 and closed at ¥18,016,218 after a 24-hour range of ¥17,953,128–¥18,178,760. The pair saw a total traded volume of 6.218 BTC and a turnover of ¥112,391,607. Despite a sharp intraday high of ¥18,178,760, price failed to hold above ¥18,100,000, indicating potential resistance.

Price formed a bullish engulfing candle between ¥18,015,946 and ¥18,044,236 during the afternoon, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. However, this was followed by consolidation and mixed momentum signals. The 20-period 15-minute moving average was at ¥18,010,000, slightly below the close, while the 50-period was at ¥18,028,000, indicating a narrowing gap between faster and slower averages. Both are approaching the ¥18,030,000 level, which may become a focal point for traders in the next 24 hours.

Volatility and Momentum Signals

Bollinger Bands expanded in the evening hours as the price tested the upper band near ¥18,178,760, indicating a period of heightened volatility. The RSI fluctuated between 45 and 55, failing to cross into overbought (70+) or oversold (30−) territory, suggesting a neutral momentum phase. The MACD histogram remained flat, reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers without a clear winner.

Key Levels and Fibonacci Projections

A key support zone appears around ¥17,980,000–18,010,000, reinforced by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ¥18,015,946–¥18,044,236 swing. Conversely, ¥18,100,000 and ¥18,200,000 represent critical resistance levels, with the former having previously repelled price multiple times. If BTCJPY breaks above ¥18,178,760, a test of ¥18,262,280 could follow, but this would require significant volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for BTCJPY could focus on the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern identified between ¥18,015,946 and ¥18,044,236. This candlestick pattern, combined with a MACD crossover above zero and a RSI retest above 50, could signal a short-term long entry. A stop-loss could be placed below ¥18,000,000, with a target at ¥18,150,000 or the nearest Fibonacci resistance. Historical backtests may reveal how this strategy performs in low-volume environments and during periods of consolidation. Given today’s low volume and mixed momentum, the strategy could benefit from incorporating a filter for increased turnover and a Bollinger Band squeeze breakout to improve signal quality.