Market Overview: Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-09-26

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• Bitcoin/Yen fell from ¥16.74M to ¥16.34M, closing near session lows amid bearish momentum and expanding volatility.
• Volume spiked in the early hours of 9/26, but failed to confirm bullish follow-through as price reversed lower.
• RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but limited by broken support at ¥16.4M.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened uncertainty and possible consolidation ahead.
• Key 15-minute patterns like bearish engulfing and long-lower shadows reinforced the prevailing downtrend.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16.69M, fell to ¥16.34M, and closed at ¥16.35M, recording a 24-hour range of ¥16.34M to ¥16.74M. The session saw a total volume of 59.23 BTC and a notional turnover of ¥9.99 billion. The price action was bearish, marked by a sharp drop after early morning highs.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish bias with multiple engulfing patterns and long lower shadows. Key resistance was found at ¥16.55M and ¥16.65M, while support levels emerged at ¥16.4M and ¥16.34M. A doji formed near ¥16.4M late in the session, hinting at indecision and possible reversal in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish crossover and reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, Bitcoin/Yen has dipped below the 50 and 100-period MAs, but remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting some long-term bullish structure remains intact despite recent bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish with a declining histogram, confirming the downward momentum. RSI reached oversold territory around 28–30, indicating a possible short-term bounce could be in play. However, a sustained recovery would need to break above ¥16.5M to rekindle longer-term bullish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with the bands widening and price testing the lower boundary multiple times. Price ended the session near the lower band, signaling exhaustion and a potential setup for a mean-reversion play if the RSI confirms an oversold bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours, particularly around the ¥16.5M level, but faded sharply as the price declined. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a peak in the early morning followed by a sharp decline. This divergence suggests the initial bearish move was driven by heavy selling pressure, but follow-through was lacking, indicating a potential near-term pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels on the 15-minute chart showed key retracements at ¥16.43M (38.2%) and ¥16.47M (61.8%). The price found support at ¥16.4M and ¥16.34M, with the 61.8% level acting as a minor resistance. Daily Fib levels highlighted a potential target for a short-term rebound around ¥16.5M, which could serve as a pivot point for near-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and the price testing key support levels at ¥16.4M and ¥16.34M, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-term mean-reversion trade. The idea would be to go long Bitcoin/Yen once the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ¥16.47M, with a stop-loss placed just below ¥16.4M. This setup would look to capture a potential bounce from oversold RSI levels and the support-turned-resistance at ¥16.4M. A trailing stop could be used after a confirmed breakout to capture additional gains from a broader bullish reversal.