Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY): 2025-09-23

• Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) traded in a tight range, closing near the opening level at 16,729,926 Yen after reaching 16,770,990 Yen.
• RSI and MACD signaled mixed momentum, with the RSI hovering near neutral and MACD showing a weak bullish crossover earlier.
• Volume remained subdued, with key turning points observed around 16,650,000 Yen and 16,730,000 Yen.
• Volatility expanded briefly during the Asian session before contracting again into a consolidation phase.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the high of the session, suggesting short-term profit-taking pressure.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 16,709,498 Yen on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 16,770,990 Yen during the session, with a low of 16,531,330 Yen. The pair closed at 16,729,926 Yen by 12:00 ET the next day. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 49.453422 BTC, with a total notional turnover of approximately ¥8,382,452,884.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed several key levels of support and resistance. The most notable support cluster emerged around ¥16,650,000 and ¥16,580,000, where buying interest appeared to stabilize the pair during intraday dips. Conversely, resistance formed at ¥16,730,000 and ¥16,770,000, where multiple candles showed rejection through bearish or neutral closes. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high, signaling short-term profit-taking, while a bullish harami at the low hinted at tentative buying on dips. A doji near ¥16,700,000 suggested indecision and potential turning points for the next 24 hours.

Key Levels

Support: ¥16,650,000, ¥16,580,000
Resistance: ¥16,730,000, ¥16,770,000

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY remained below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages for much of the session, indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum. The 20SMA (20-period Simple Moving Average) oscillated between ¥16,680,000 and ¥16,710,000, while the 50SMA acted as a weak resistance above ¥16,695,000. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA briefly during the European session, but the signal did not hold and reversed into a bearish crossover by the close of the session. On a broader scale, the 50EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 200SMA on the daily chart showed BTCJPY trading below both, reinforcing a bearish bias over the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a weak bullish crossover early in the Asian session before moving into negative territory, indicating a return of bearish momentum. The histogram remained largely flat during most of the session, with brief spikes during price surges and declines. The RSI, meanwhile, fluctuated between 40 and 60 for most of the period, staying within the neutral range. A brief overbought condition occurred at the high near ¥16,770,000, but the RSI quickly corrected back below 60, signaling short-term profit-taking. A reading below 50 by the end of the session suggests that momentum remains neutral to slightly bearish ahead of the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility on the 15-minute chart remained moderate throughout the session, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing during consolidation phases and expanding during sharp moves. BTCJPY traded inside the bands for most of the session, with the price occasionally touching the upper band during late European and early US sessions. The 20-period standard deviation was below average, suggesting a period of low volatility. A contraction in the bands during the Asian session followed by a slight expansion suggests the potential for renewed directional movement in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity remained generally subdued throughout the session, with the most notable increase observed between ¥16,630,000 and ¥16,680,000 during the Asian session. This price range coincided with a reversal pattern, suggesting accumulation by longs during dips. On the other hand, turnover increased during the sharp intraday pullback toward ¥16,530,000, indicating panic selling or forced liquidation. However, price and volume showed signs of divergence as volume decreased during the rebound toward ¥16,730,000, suggesting weaker conviction in the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key intraday swing from ¥16,531,330 to ¥16,770,990, the most significant levels were 61.8% at ¥16,650,000 and 38.2% at ¥16,700,000. Price tested the 61.8% level multiple times during the session and found support, indicating that this could be a short-term floor. The 38.2% level acted as a magnet for price, with a few bullish candle patterns forming near this level. Looking ahead, a break below ¥16,650,000 could target ¥16,580,000 and ¥16,530,000, while a break above ¥16,730,000 may aim for ¥16,770,000 and ¥16,800,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed volatility contraction and key support levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ¥16,650,000 with a stop loss below the 50% level at ¥16,665,000. A take profit target could be set at the 38.2% retracement level at ¥16,700,000, with a second target at the 78.6% level at ¥16,730,000. This approach leverages consolidation and Fibonacci psychology, assuming a continuation of the bullish bias observed in the reversal pattern. Given the low volume and mixed RSI readings, however, the strategy should include a time-based exit if the target is not hit within 48 hours to manage risk.