Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-09-22

• BTCJPY traded lower with bearish momentum, closing 1.6% below the prior 24-hour open.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed near 17,145,122 Yen, signaling short-term pressure.
• Volatility expanded after 06:00 ET as price dropped below 17,000,000 Yen, triggering stop-loss activity.
• RSI remains in oversold territory at 27, suggesting potential for a rebound but not an immediate reversal.
• Turnover spiked sharply during the decline, indicating strong institutional selling pressure.

The BTCJPY pair opened at 17,135,922 Yen on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 17,145,122 Yen before closing at 16,739,972 Yen on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 121.15 BTC, while notional turnover reached 20,686,779,000 Yen over the 24-hour period. The price action reflected a sharp bearish reversal, with key support testing and strong volume confirmation.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 17,145,122 Yen level, with the bearish close at 16,691,880 Yen marking the end of a multi-hour downtrend. A doji appeared at 16,711,531 Yen, signaling a potential pause in the bearish momentum. Key support levels to watch include 16,700,000 Yen and 16,650,000 Yen. A break below 16,650,000 Yen could trigger further downside towards 16,600,000 Yen.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bearish alignment, with the 50SMA acting as a resistance below the 16,750,000 Yen level. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) indicate a bearish bias, with price well below the 200SMA, which is currently at 17,200,000 Yen. The current price of 16,739,972 Yen is trading well below the 100SMA and 200SMA, indicating a strong bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative with a bearish crossover, confirming the downward momentum. The RSI is in oversold territory at 27, suggesting a potential pullback could occur in the near term. However, without a clear break above the 16,750,000 Yen level, the overbought condition on the upside remains unlikely. The bearish divergence between RSI and price is a bearish signal, supporting the likelihood of further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Price remains within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. The upper band is at 17,300,000 Yen, and the lower band is at 16,600,000 Yen. A break above the upper band could signal a reversal, but the current positioning suggests that the trend remains bearish. Volatility has expanded during the last 6 hours, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 06:00–07:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp drop below the 17,000,000 Yen level. Total notional turnover reached 20,686,779,000 Yen, with the bulk of the volume concentrated during the bearish leg from 17,145,122 to 16,739,972 Yen. The volume divergence between the early bearish sell-off and the recent consolidation suggests that the bearish trend has more legs to run.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 17,145,122 to 16,691,880 Yen, the 61.8% level is at 16,765,000 Yen. A retest of this level may offer a short-term buying opportunity, but a failure to hold above 16,750,000 Yen could invalidate the bullish bias. Daily-level retracements indicate a 61.8% level at 16,950,000 Yen, which could act as a near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for BTCJPY could focus on a mean-reversion approach using the RSI and Bollinger Bands. When price touches the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI enters oversold territory (e.g., below 30), a long entry could be triggered with a stop-loss below the most recent swing low. A target would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent RSI reading of 27 and price near the lower band, this setup aligns with the strategy's entry criteria. If validated by historical data, this approach could capture short-term rebounds in a bearish environment while managing risk with defined stop levels.