Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) as of 2025-09-19

• Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) closed lower at 17,250,000 Yen, down from an open of 17,428,843, with a 24-hour high of 17,451,116 and low of 17,115,000.
• Momentum weakened throughout the session, with RSI dropping into oversold territory by late ET.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour window, as seen by a wide range between high and low.
• Notional turnover reached ¥18.1M, with volume concentrated in the late New York and Tokyo sessions.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, confirming pressure toward key support levels.

Price Action and Structure

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened the 24-hour session at 17,428,843 Yen, reaching a high of 17,451,116 before trending lower throughout the day. The price closed at 17,250,000 Yen, down -1.04% from the open. The session saw a wide range of 336,116 Yen, with bears asserting control after a strong bearish engulfing pattern formed early. Notable support levels appear at 17,200,000 and 17,150,000 Yen, while resistance remains at 17,400,000 and 17,500,000 Yen.

Support and Resistance Levels

The most immediate support for BTCJPY appears to be at 17,200,000 Yen, followed by 17,150,000 and 17,100,000 Yen. Resistance levels are likely to be tested at 17,400,000 and 17,500,000 Yen. A breakdown below 17,200,000 could bring in fresh momentum to the 17,150,000 zone.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The RSI fell into oversold territory near 28 by late ET, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, the MACD (12,26,9) turned negative, showing bearish momentum. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at 17,340,000, and the 20-period MA is at 17,310,000, suggesting further downward pressure.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the session, with the price bouncing off the lower Bollinger Band on multiple occasions. The bands widened in the early hours, indicating heightened uncertainty. The current close of 17,250,000 is sitting just above the lower band, suggesting a potential for consolidation or a rebound.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume and turnover were concentrated in the afternoon and evening hours, with the largest spikes seen around 01:15–01:45 ET and again in the early Tokyo session. This suggests increased participation from both Western and Asian traders during bearish moves. No significant divergences were observed between price and volume, indicating that the bearish move is supported by strong conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing high of 17,451,116 and low of 17,239,865, key levels for the next 24 hours include 17,340,000 (61.8%) and 17,320,000 (50%). A breakdown below 17,320,000 could target the 17,200,000 (38.2%) level as a next support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a potential strategy could involve a short bias with a stop-loss above the 50-period MA at 17,340,000 Yen. A Fibonacci-based target at 17,200,000 could be used as a profit target, with risk management tied to the 50-period MA. This approach would rely on confirming a breakdown below the 17,200,000 level before entering the trade, ensuring alignment with both technical and risk management principles.