Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) - 2025-09-18

• BTCJPY rose from ¥16,971,796 to ¥17,428,843 over 24 hours, forming bullish continuation patterns near key resistance.
• Volatility spiked after ¥17,150,000 as price expanded above upper Bollinger Bands, indicating strong momentum.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near 70, while MACD remained above signal line, confirming positive divergence.
• On-chain turnover surged 17.6% during late-night rally, aligning with price action and reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,971,796 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at ¥17,428,843 by 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥17,444,372 and a low of ¥16,802,138. The 24-hour volume totaled 104.058 BTC, with a notional turnover of ¥17,912,965,721.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish bias as BTCJPY broke through ¥17,150,000 and ¥17,300,000 psychological levels. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around ¥17,290,000, followed by a higher high at ¥17,444,372. Price also formed a small bearish doji near ¥17,450,000, hinting at initial resistance. Key support levels were identified at ¥17,100,000 and ¥16,950,000, both of which held through minor retracements.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a steep upward tilt, with price consistently above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be catching up with the 200-period MA, indicating a possible continuation of the bullish trend. The 100-period MA acted as a minor support level in late-night trading.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence in late-night and early-morning trading, with the line staying above the signal line. RSI surged to overbought territory near 72, suggesting potential for consolidation or short-term pullback. However, the divergence between RSI and price remains constructive, with no immediate signs of exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price broke above the upper Bollinger Band at ¥17,300,000, indicating strong buying pressure. The 20-period band width increased by 8.2%, aligning with the sharp rally. Price remained above the mid-band throughout most of the session, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and notional turnover surged between 2025-09-18 01:00 and 03:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout above ¥17,300,000. The highest 15-minute volume was recorded at ¥17,219,439 (¥7.4M turnover), and again at ¥17,300,790 (¥5.7M turnover). Notably, volume remained above average during key resistance breaks, confirming strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent ¥16,802,138 to ¥17,444,372 swing, BTCJPY held key levels at 61.8% (~¥17,140,000) and 78.6% (~¥17,330,000). The price showed consolidation around 50% and 61.8% before breaking out. On the daily chart, 78.6% of the ¥16,900,000 to ¥17,400,000 rally is at ¥17,260,000, which has been tested and held.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on BTCJPY when price closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover above the signal line. Exit conditions could include a RSI over 75 or a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a trailing stop below the prior swing low. Given today’s price action and strong volume confirmation, this setup aligns well with the observed price dynamics and could provide a high-probability trade entry in a bullish environment.