Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-09-05

• Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) rose by 1.86% over 24 hours amid strong late-day buying interest.
• Price tested and broke above a key 15-minute resistance at ~16.47M, now consolidating near 16.75M.
• MACD turned positive, suggesting bullish momentum, with RSI near neutral territory at ~58.
• Volume surged after 7:15 AM ET, confirming the breakout as buyers absorbed early selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply, reflecting increased volatility in the final 10 hours of the cycle.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,302,800, surged to a high of ¥16,761,566, dipped to a low of ¥16,326,120, and closed at ¥16,758,190. Total volume was 37.65 BTC, with notional turnover of ¥6,223,369,169, indicating strong participation.

Structure & Formations

The BTCJPY candlestick pattern exhibited a bullish breakout, driven by a powerful 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forming at ¥16.5M on 7:15 AM ET. This was followed by a strong continuation pattern with a higher high and higher close, suggesting renewed buying interest. A doji formed near ¥16.56M, signaling temporary indecision. Key support levels emerged at ¥16.47M and ¥16.36M, while resistance was tested and broken at ¥16.57M and ¥16.62M.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the price consistently above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bullish bias. The 50-period line crossed above the 100-period MA for the first time in over two days, forming a golden cross. Daily chart moving averages (50/100/200) aligned upward, indicating a sustained bullish trend across multiple timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the final hours, with a growing histogram reflecting increasing bullish momentum. RSI moved from overbought territory (~70) in the early morning to neutral (~58) by the close, indicating a potential pause in aggressive buying. The combination of positive divergence between RSI and price in the morning and the strong MACD signal suggests a strong upward bias, though caution is warranted if RSI remains above 60 for too long.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 7:15 AM ET onward, reflecting heightened volatility and strong directional movement. Price remained above the upper band for most of the late morning, reinforcing the strength of the breakout. A contraction in volatility was observed in the pre-breakout phase, suggesting a potential reversal signal ahead of the surge. The bands now serve as dynamic support and resistance as consolidation continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 7:15 AM ET as the price broke above ¥16.5M, with notional turnover hitting ¥122 million in that 15-minute window. The volume spike confirmed the breakout and indicated strong buyer participation. A divergence between price and volume was noted in the early morning, with price rising on decreasing volume, which may indicate short-term profit-taking before the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% were tested and held at ¥16.43M and ¥16.47M, respectively. The 100% level at ¥16.57M was successfully broken, indicating a strong continuation of the trend. Daily Fibonacci levels showed similar strength, with the 61.8% retracement at ¥16.5M now serving as a pivot support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the confirmed breakout and bullish momentum, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a confirmed close above the 15-minute 50-period MA, with a stop-loss placed below the last major support at ¥16.47M. A target of ¥16.8M, aligned with the 16.18% Fibonacci extension, could be used for a trailing stop. This setup leverages the confluence of moving averages, volume confirmation, and Fibonacci structure to improve signal reliability in a trending environment.