Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) – October 26, 2025

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) closed up 5.85% at $113,694.98 after a sharp rally late in the 24-hour period.
• A key breakout above $112,000 fueled momentum, with high volatility evident in both price and turnover.
• RSI shows overbought territory, while MACD divergence suggests a potential slowdown in upward thrust.
• Volume surged in the last 6 hours, with a 3.2x increase over the prior 18 hours, validating the recent rally.
• A potential retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $111,300 may offer near-term support.

The 24-hour period saw Bitcoin/Tether open at $111,500 and close at $113,694.98, with a high of $113,996.00 and a low of $111,260.45. Total trading volume reached approximately 3,169.97 BTC, translating to a notional turnover of $357,279,000 (at average price ~$112,880). Price action was characterized by a strong rally in the final 8 hours, driven by increased buyer participation and a breakout above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The chart reveals a bullish reversal pattern in the late hours, with a Bullish Engulfing candle forming after a 3.5-hour consolidation phase. Key support levels appear at $112,500 (prior high) and $111,300 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing), while resistance now resides at $114,000 and $115,000. A potential bearish Doji formed just below $114,000 on October 26 at 15:45 ET, signaling a possible short-term pause.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating strong short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA at $112,690.00 and the 20-period MA at $112,840.00 both acted as dynamic support during the final leg of the rally. Daily averages, however, show the 50-day at $109,760 and the 200-day at $107,830, suggesting long-term buyers remain engaged.

MACD & RSI

Momentum indicators confirmed the strength of the rally, with the MACD line surging above the signal line and remaining in positive territory. The RSI reached 68 at the 24-hour close, suggesting mild overbought conditions and a potential pullback toward the 55–60 range in the near term. A bearish divergence in the MACD may hint at a temporary pause before further upside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 8 hours, with the upper band reaching $114,400 and the lower band at $111,300. BTCUSDT closed just beneath the upper band, indicating strong buying pressure. A consolidation phase may bring the price toward the mid-band at $112,900, with the lower band serving as a critical support zone if buyers fail to hold the $112,500 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply in the last 6 hours, peaking with the 15-minute candle on October 26 at 13:45 ET, which saw $113,852.64 in turnover. Notional turnover expanded by over 3.2x compared to earlier in the 24-hour period, reinforcing the validity of the breakout. No significant price-turnover divergence was observed, suggesting bullish continuation remains viable for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from $111,260 to $113,996.00, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $112,630. The 38.2% level at $112,950 was briefly tested but held as support. For the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent $112,000–$115,500 move is at $113,060, aligning with a potential consolidation target.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the recent Bullish Engulfing signal, a backtest strategy could be designed to test the pattern's effectiveness on BTCUSDT. By identifying historical occurrences of the Bullish Engulfing candle and tracking the performance over 1–3 days, we could assess win rate and risk-reward ratios. This would help determine if the pattern has predictive value and whether entry rules (e.g., stop-loss at the engulfing candle’s low) are effective.