Market Overview: Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) declined by 2.9% over 24 hours amid heightened volatility and bearish momentum.
• Price action showed a breakdown below key support levels with a strong bearish engulfing pattern in early evening ET.
• Volume surged during the sell-off, confirming bearish conviction while RSI signaled oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply as price traded near the lower band, indicating increased market anxiety.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

At 12:00 ET on October 7, 2025, Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $125,139.59, reached a high of $126,199.63, and closed at $121,849.39 after hitting a low of $121,172.89. The total traded volume was approximately 12,405.35 BTC, with a notional turnover of $1.53 billion. The price action displayed a clear bearish bias, particularly in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a key support level forming around $121,800–$122,000, where price found temporary refuge after a steep drop. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:45 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A doji was observed at 20:45 ET, suggesting indecision and a possible short-term pause in the selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are aligned bearishly, with price closing significantly below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are in bearish crossover, reinforcing the medium-term bearish bias. The 100-period MA also crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a deeper consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a sharp contraction in bullish momentum throughout the day, with the line dropping below the signal line, suggesting a bearish reversal. The RSI indicator reached oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a near-term bounce. However, the depth of the sell-off suggests a deeper correction may still be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price trading near the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A potential bounce from the lower band could provide short-term relief but would likely remain within the context of the broader bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 14:00–15:45 ET window, with a total of 2,683.67 BTC traded in that period. The notional turnover during this window was approximately $315 million, representing 20.6% of the 24-hour total. A divergence emerged between price and turnover in the 20:00–22:00 ET period, where turnover declined despite continued price weakness, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from $126,199.63 to $121,172.89, the 38.2% retracement level is at $124,262, and the 61.8% is at $122,582. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which could act as a potential pivot for a short-term rebound or a retest of the 38.2% level before further bearish action resumes.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leverages the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold conditions observed during the 19:45–20:45 ET window. A potential buy-the-dip setup could emerge if price consolidates near the 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI stabilizes above 30. A stop-loss below $121,172.89 and a take-profit target at $123,000 would align with the risk-reward profile of the retracement scenario. This setup could be tested for its consistency across similar 15-minute bearish corrections.

Forward-Looking View

Over the next 24 hours, BTCUSDT could test the $121,172.89 support level with a potential bounce or consolidation within the $122,000–$123,000 range. Traders should monitor the 20-period MA for a potential reversal and watch for any divergence in volume and momentum. Caution is warranted as bearish sentiment remains strong, and any bullish attempt could be met with renewed selling pressure.