Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Bitcoin fluctuated between $119,651 and $121,864 on BTCUSDT, closing lower with strong volume in late-night hours.
• RSI showed overbought conditions in the session’s peak, while Bollinger Bands widened, signaling increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around $120,854, followed by a rejection at $121,500.
• Turnover spiked during the 21:00–24:00 ET window, but failed to push price above the 121,500 resistance cluster.
• Short-term moving averages trended higher, but the 50-period line remains above the 20-period line, suggesting mixed momentum.

Price and Volume Summary

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $120,878.85 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and traded as high as $121,864 before closing at $121,127.28 at 04:15 ET on 2025-10-10. The 24-hour range was between $119,651.47 and $121,864, with a total traded volume of 11,968.63 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately $1.48 billion.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around the $120,854–$121,146 range, which indicated a short-term reversal. However, this was followed by a bearish rejection at $121,500–$121,600, where a doji and a high-volume rejection candle appeared. These suggest a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers around the $121,500 psychological level. Additionally, a bearish harami was visible around $121,444–$121,477, which may hint at a near-term topping pattern if confirmed.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart diverged slightly, with the 20-period rising above the 50-period around the $121,200–$121,400 range, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period moving average on the daily chart remains above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a more cautious longer-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive crossover in the late-night trading session, supporting the bullish bias around $121,400–$121,600. However, the RSI hit overbought territory above 70 in the late 21:00–22:30 ET window, suggesting the risk of a pullback. By the close of the session, RSI had pulled back to neutral territory, while the MACD histogram contracted slightly, indicating fading bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 21:00–24:00 ET window as volatility increased, with Bitcoin trading near the upper band for several hours. Price then moved back to the middle band by 01:00–02:00 ET, indicating a consolidation phase. A contraction is currently underway, which may precede a breakout or breakdown from the $121,500–$121,600 zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged between 20:00 and 01:00 ET, coinciding with the peak in the $121,400–$121,600 range. However, after reaching the $121,600 resistance, volume declined despite the continued attempt to break above the level, signaling weakening bullish conviction. Price and volume action diverged slightly during this phase, suggesting a higher probability of a near-term pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent $119,651.47 to $121,863.74 swing, key levels at 38.2% (~$120,860) and 61.8% (~$121,470) were tested multiple times. Price found strong resistance at the 61.8% level and has been consolidating since. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing remains at ~$120,500, which is likely to be a key support level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on identifying consolidation breakouts using a combination of volume and MACD signals. A potential trigger is defined as a 15-minute candle closing above or below a tight consolidation range, supported by a rising MACD histogram and increasing volume. During today’s session, a similar setup was observed around $121,400–$121,600. The failed breakout at $121,600 suggests that future breakouts should be confirmed with follow-through volume and a sustained move above that level. This strategy could be refined by adding a trailing stop below the recent swing low if used in a short-term trading context.