Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price surged past 104,000 but failed to sustain above 105,000, closing at 105,018.15.
• RSI hit overbought levels, signaling potential pullback; MACD divergence observed.
• Volume spiked during the breakout attempt, confirming aggressive bullish activity.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at 103,447.28 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, and within the next 24 hours, reached a high of 105,333.33 before retreating to a low of 101,300.00. The 24-hour session closed at 105,018.15 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The total 15-minute OHLCV data showed a volume of 18,489.37 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately $1,905,496,387.75, highlighting significant liquidity and activity.

Structure & Formations indicate a volatile 24-hour session characterized by sharp bullish and bearish thrusts. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared near the session high (~105,000), signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. Key resistance levels were observed at 105,000 and 105,333.33, while immediate support emerged around 104,000 and 101,300. A doji near the 105,000 level suggests indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages analysis on the 15-minute chart revealed the 20-period MA (104,140) crossing above the 50-period MA (103,990), indicating a short-term bullish bias. However, on the daily chart, the 50-period MA (~104,300) remains above the 200-period MA (~102,500), signaling a broader bullish trend. Price closed above the 50-period daily MA, suggesting ongoing strength, but the 200-day MA could act as a long-term support.

MACD showed a positive crossover in the late hours of the session, suggesting renewed bullish momentum, but the histogram began to narrow toward the close, hinting at potential momentum decay. RSI reached 75 at the session high, indicating overbought conditions, though it remained in the 60–70 range at the close. This suggests a possible pullback but not a full reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout attempt, with price closing near the upper band, signaling high volatility and potential for a consolidation phase.

Volume and turnover dynamics revealed a spike in activity as price approached 105,000, with volume exceeding 600 BTC in the 15-minute intervals. The notional turnover also rose sharply, indicating increased participation. However, divergence appeared between price and turnover in the final hours as price pulled back while turnover remained elevated, suggesting uncertainty in the market.

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the 24-hour swing from the low of 101,300 to the high of 105,333.33. The 61.8% retracement level (~103,750) was closely tested in the closing hours, with the 78.6% level (~104,800) acting as a key psychological and technical support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level (~104,000) was also a point of interest, with price bouncing off it multiple times during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve combining MACD crossovers with RSI overbought/oversold signals. A long entry could be triggered when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and RSI drops below 30 (oversold), while a short entry could be activated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and RSI exceeds 70 (overbought). This approach would aim to capture both bullish rebounds and bearish corrections. Given the high volatility seen in this 24-hour window, filtering signals with Bollinger Bands or Fibonacci retracement levels could enhance accuracy by avoiding trades at extreme price levels.